When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.

The television season is almost over, and so is the torture of waiting to find out which shows will be renewed and canceled.

Only two more installments of Bubble Watch after this week before heading into the upfronts when the fall schedules are announced.  As of now, of the 84 scripted shows on the list below, 20 of them have already been canceled or certainly will be, 36 have already been renewed or certainly will be, and two are in their final seasons.  That leaves twenty six shows with at least some level of guesswork.

I’m including Two and a Half Men in the guesswork pile, even though technically it’s already been renewed, and even though I can’t imagine it won’t be renewed. As Bill has noted, it doesn’t have to do as well as it did with Charlie Sheen to be worth CBS’s while. On the other hand, CBS won’t be willing to pay Warner Bros as much for it without Charlie Sheen.

Of the 26 guesswork shows, I have 9 of them on the bubble, with the remaining 17 leaning more one way than the other, and some more than others. But if for entertainment purposes you want to lump all 26 into your own personal bubble, go for it. I’m also fine if you want to drag Harry’s Law out of likely renewal to the bubble on your personal scorecards if it entertains you or otherwise makes you feel better.

Don’t be surprised if additional renewals are announced before the week of upfronts beginning May 16.

Several designation changes this week.

  • Law & Order: LA downgraded to likely cancellation.
  • Recent performance of Hellcats has it now more likely to be canceled than renewed.
  • Unsurprisingly  90210, Gossip Girl, Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries were all renewed by the CW.
  • Recent performance of Nikita and One Tree Hill, plus the fact that renewals for neither were announced (not really a surprise) have me dragging both down to the bubble. I’d be surprised if both were canceled, but wouldn’t be surprised if both were renewed.
Show Network Status
My Generation ABC Canceled
The Whole Truth ABC Canceled
Chaos CBS Canceled
Medium CBS Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Canceled
Lone Star Fox Canceled
Running Wilde Fox Canceled
The Good Guys Fox Canceled
Chase NBC Canceled
Outlaw NBC Canceled
Perfect Couples NBC Canceled
The Cape NBC Canceled
The Paul Reiser Show NBC Canceled
Undercovers NBC Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Certain Cancellation
No Ordinary Family ABC Certain Cancellation
Off The Map ABC Certain Cancellation
The Defenders CBS Certain Cancellation
Traffic Light Fox Certain Cancellation
The Event NBC Certain Cancellation
Better With You ABC Likely Cancellation
Brothers & Sisters ABC Likely Cancellation
V ABC Likely Cancellation
$#*! My Dad Says CBS Likely Cancellation
Mad Love CBS Likely Cancellation
Hellcats CW Likely Cancellation
Human Target Fox Likely Cancellation
The Chicago Code Fox Likely Cancellation
Chuck NBC Likely Cancellation
Law & Order: Los Angeles NBC Likely Cancellation
Outsourced NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Mr. Sunshine ABC On The Bubble
Blue Bloods CBS On The Bubble
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
One Tree Hill CW On The Bubble
Breaking In Fox On The Bubble
Lie To Me Fox On The Bubble
Body of Proof ABC Likely Renewal
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
Rules of Engagement CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
Harry’s Law NBC Likely Renewal
Desperate Housewives ABC Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Certain Renewal
Bones Fox Certain Renewal
House Fox Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Castle ABC Renewed
Cougar Town ABC Renewed
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewed
Modern Family ABC Renewed
Private Practice ABC Renewed
The Middle ABC Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
90210′ CW Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
30 Rock NBC Renewed
Community NBC Renewed
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewed
The Office NBC Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewed, But…
Friday Night Lights NBC Final Season
Smallville CW Final Season


Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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