When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.

Blue Bloods Ousts Creators, Is That a Positive Indicator for Renewal?

CBS Studios “exited” the shows creators according to Nikki Finke.  That’s fancy TV talk that I guess is intended to sting less than “you’re fired, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”  Apparently the show’s executive producer and the network think the show needs to be more procedural than the creators thinks.   Finke notes the irony that only 9 months ago the original showrunner left over a creative spat with star Tom Selleck.  Selleck had complained the show was too procedural.

While that may give Finke the opportunity to grind some axes, and one of our Hollywood favorites the opportunity to rage against the machine, it does seem like a positive indicator for the show’s renewal prospects.

It seems like many of the trades, perhaps blown away by Blue Bloods total viewer numbers, see its renewal as a fait accompli, but not us.  Its Friday originals have performed at 60% of CBS’s scripted adults 18-49 average. Even factoring in Friday, it’s not a resounding endorsement for renewal, though perhaps a better case than the 70% average in its Wednesday trial run.

I view the “turmoil” as the type of thing that happens when networks aren’t thrilled with the ratings, but why bother with any of that if the show isn’t likely to return? It has been firmly perched on the bubble for a while, and I’m leaving it there,  but it’s hard to read the news as anything but a plus as far as its renewal chances.

Should Hellcats be Moved to Likely to Be Canceled?

It seemed like pulling teeth to get Hellcats put on the bubble. Now some are calling for its cancellation after it returned to a craptastic 0.5 adults 18-49 rating.  Its 0.8 in CW’s target women 18-34 was nothing to write home about either.  Particularly if the folks behind One Tree Hill want to continue with it, I could see Hellcats getting canceled.  But most CW shows, including The Vampire Diaries were down this week. I’m leaving it on the bubble for now, barely.

In other news… Chaos and The Paul Reiser Show were canceled.

Show Network Status
My Generation ABC Canceled
The Whole Truth ABC Canceled
Chaos CBS Canceled
Medium CBS Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Canceled
Lone Star Fox Canceled
Running Wilde Fox Canceled
The Good Guys Fox Canceled
Chase NBC Canceled
Outlaw NBC Canceled
Perfect Couples NBC Canceled
The Cape NBC Canceled
The Paul Reiser Show NBC Canceled
Undercovers NBC Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Certain Cancellation
No Ordinary Family ABC Certain Cancellation
Off The Map ABC Certain Cancellation
The Defenders CBS Certain Cancellation
Traffic Light Fox Certain Cancellation
The Event NBC Certain Cancellation
Better With You ABC Likely Cancellation
Brothers & Sisters ABC Likely Cancellation
V ABC Likely Cancellation
$#*! My Dad Says CBS Likely Cancellation
Mad Love CBS Likely Cancellation
Human Target Fox Likely Cancellation
The Chicago Code Fox Likely Cancellation
Chuck NBC Likely Cancellation
Outsourced NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Mr. Sunshine ABC On The Bubble
Blue Bloods CBS On The Bubble
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Hellcats CW On The Bubble
Breaking In Fox On The Bubble
Lie To Me Fox On The Bubble
Law & Order: Los Angeles NBC On The Bubble
Body of Proof ABC Likely Renewal
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
Rules of Engagement CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
90210′ CW Likely Renewal
Gossip Girl CW Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
One Tree Hill CW Likely Renewal
Harry’s Law NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Desperate Housewives ABC Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Bones Fox Certain Renewal
House Fox Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
Castle ABC Renewed
Cougar Town ABC Renewed
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewed
Modern Family ABC Renewed
Private Practice ABC Renewed
The Middle ABC Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
30 Rock NBC Renewed
Community NBC Renewed
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewed
The Office NBC Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewed, But…
Smallville CW Final Season


Someone suggested I try color coded shading. I tried it and didn’t like it. I was going to go colorless, but it generated so much discussion last week that I figured I’d try it another week (with different colors). Either that, or I am just going with an Easter egg theme…

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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