When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Last week, I tried an all-shows-in-one approach which also included shows already renewed and canceled. I got a lot of good feedback (thanks!)  in real-time and implemented some of it to improve readability.

This week you’ll notice more differences between the table below and the designations in the  Renew/Cancel Index.  For the most part, Bill is not prognosticating about what will happen in May, but rather what would happen by May if the season ended now.

I am taking more of a prognosticate now about what will happen in May approach. So at least for now you will see several shows that the R/C indices list as “likely” that will still be on the bubble in the Bubble Watch.   Most of the differences at this point have to do with little data for the R/C Index after resetting for the second half of the season. I’d guess in another month they’ll be 98% identical.

Only a couple of changes to the the table this week.  One is that I’ve downgraded Perfect Couples to likely to be canceled.  There’s only a couple of weeks of data, but it’s NBC’s weakest link in its Thursday night comedy lineup.  I’ve also downgraded The Cape to likely to be canceled. It keeps falling and even if manages to stabilize at last Monday’s level (a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating), it’s still likely to be canceled.  Its ratings need to go up a bit to get back on the bubble.

The first two weeks of Friday Fringe should make fans happy, but for now, it’s still on the bubble.

Edit: Forgot to mention that I changed Lie To Me from ‘certain to be canceled’ back to ‘likely to be canceled’ after the ratings gods mocked me.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.

Show Network Status
The Whole Truth ABC Already Canceled
My Generation ABC Already Canceled
Medium CBS Already Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Already Canceled
Running Wilde Fox Already Canceled
The Good Guys Fox Already Canceled
Lone Star Fox Already Canceled
Outlaw NBC Already Canceled
Undercovers NBC Already Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Certain To Be Canceled
No Ordinary Family ABC Certain To Be Canceled
The Defenders CBS Certain To Be Canceled
Human Target Fox Certain To Be Canceled
Chase NBC Certain To Be Canceled
Lie To Me Fox Likely To Be Canceled
V ABC Likely To Be Canceled
The Event NBC Likely To Be Canceled
Perfect Couples NBC Likely To Be Canceled
The Cape NBC Likely To Be Canceled
Brothers & Sisters ABC On The Bubble
Off The Map ABC On The Bubble
Better With You ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
$#*! My Dad Says CBS On The Bubble
Blue Bloods CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
American Dad Fox On The Bubble*
Bob’s Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Fringe Fox On The Bubble
Parenthood NBC On The Bubble
Chuck NBC On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Law & Order: Los Angeles NBC On The Bubble
Harry’s Law NBC On The Bubble
Outsourced NBC On The Bubble
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely To Be Renewed
Hellcats CW Likely To Be Renewed
90210′ CW Likely To Be Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Likely To Be Renewed
Nikita CW Likely To Be Renewed
One Tree Hill CW Likely To Be Renewed
Bones Fox Likely To Be Renewed
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely To Be Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Certain To Be Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Certain To Be Renewed
CSI CBS Certain To Be Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Certain To Be Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain To Be Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Certain To Be Renewed
NCIS CBS Certain To Be Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Certain To Be Renewed
Rules of Engagement CBS Certain To Be Renewed
Supernatural CW Certain To Be Renewed
Vampire Diaries CW Certain To Be Renewed
Family Guy Fox Certain To Be Renewed
House Fox Certain To Be Renewed
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain To Be Renewed
The Office NBC Certain To Be Renewed
Castle ABC Already Renewed
Private Practice ABC Already Renewed
Cougar Town ABC Already Renewed
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Already Renewed
The Middle ABC Already Renewed
Modern Family ABC Already Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Already Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Already Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Already Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Already Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Already Renewed
Glee Fox Already Renewed
30 Rock NBC Already Renewed
Smallville CW Final Season

*Though I’ve seen no official confirmation as far as renewal for next season for ‘American Dad’ it will have enough episodes left to air some next season whether it’s renewed or not.  At this point nothing would surprise me much, including flipping ‘Bobs Burgers’ to the Sunday 7:30p timeslot and moving ‘American Dad’ back in the primary lineup.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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