When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
V fans are hopeful based on consecutive weeks of ratings gains and some have suggested as a result that it should at least move up to ‘on the bubble’ status. I can’t see any circumstance where ABC will renew a show with a sub-2.0 adults 18-49 rating and the recent uptick only brought it up to a 1.9 rating last week. Sure, it’s doing way better than the shows the air before it and after it (No Ordinary Family and Detroit 1-8-7), but those shows have horrible ratings and are certain to be canceled. V’s ratings aren’t as horrible, but they still are pretty bad, so it’s still likely to be canceled.
Don’t be surprised to see Harry’s Law move down to the bubble in this week’s Renew/Cancel report. I won’t fault Bill for moving it if he does, since against original competition on ABC and CBS the last two weeks it has taken a hit. I’m leaving it as likely to be renewed at this point and my reason will surprise (and perhaps annoy) some: it may be the rare case of total viewers actually mattering a little.
In this case that’s a function of overall suckage at NBC. Total viewers don’t matter to NBC, but the local affiliates care less about 18-49 and more about total viewers when it comes to the 10pm lead-in to the 11pm local news. Even beaten down, last week Harry’s Law had more viewers than any other NBC 10pm show. I can see the new Comcast overlords throwing the affiliates a bone. Of course, if Harry’s Law continues to bleed viewers, that won’t be a factor, but for now I think it is. It will be interesting to see if the return of The Event helps Harry’s Law. Obviously, The Cape hasn’t.
Also don’t be surprised to see Fringe move to “likely to be canceled” status in this week’s Renew/Cancel report, but here in the Bubble Watch it’s staying on the bubble. Am I having a “but Kevin Reilly said…” moment? Perhaps. Mostly I’m having a “there isn’t a lot of historical precedent” moment, so I am deferring to what would surprise me and what wouldn’t. If Fringe were to pull 1.5 adults 18-49 ratings for the rest of its Friday run, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Fox canceled it, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Fox renewed it. It’s a fine line because if it pulls 1.4s the rest of the way, I would be surprised if Fox renewed it. We’ll just have to see what happens.
Changes/Additions for the week:
Mad Love premiered and I’ve got it designated ‘on the bubble’ for now. Its premiere ratings were certainly good enough that it would appear destined for renewal if it was on NBC. But it’s on CBS.
Update: Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior: Ooops! Forgot to add this to the table below. There’s only one data point, but that data point is in “likely to be renewed” range.
As predicted the stay on the bubble was short for The Chicago Code, which dropped down to a 2.0 in its second week. There’s not much data, but the data limited data says its headed for cancellation so I changed it to “likely to be canceled”
There’s not much data for Traffic Light either, but its numbers are ugly enough that I changed it from likely to certain cancellation.
Bob’s Burgers’ average will be boosted for a while by its big premiere numbers. but its more recent numbers paint a picture of “likely to be canceled”.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.
|My Generation||ABC||Already Canceled|
|The Whole Truth||ABC||Already Canceled|
|Life Unexpected||CW||Already Canceled|
|Lone Star||Fox||Already Canceled|
|Running Wilde||Fox||Already Canceled|
|The Good Guys||Fox||Already Canceled|
|Detroit 1-8-7||ABC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|No Ordinary Family||ABC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|The Defenders||CBS||Certain To Be Canceled|
|Traffic Light||Fox||Certain To Be Canceled|
|The Cape||NBC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|Perfect Couples||NBC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|Off The Map||ABC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|V||ABC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|$#*! My Dad Says||CBS||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Human Target||Fox||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Lie To Me||Fox||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Bob’s Burgers||Fox||Likely To Be Canceled|
|The Chicago Code||Fox||Likely To Be Canceled|
|The Event||NBC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Better With You||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Brothers & Sisters||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Mad Love||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|American Dad*||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Fringe||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Chuck||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Law & Order: Los Angeles||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Outsourced||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Mr. Sunshine||ABC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||Likely To Be Renewed|
|90210′||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Hellcats||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Nikita||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Parenthood||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|CSI||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Supernatural||CW||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Bones||Fox||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Family Guy||Fox||Certain To Be Renewed|
|House||Fox||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|The Office||NBC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Cougar Town||ABC||Already Renewed|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Already Renewed|
|Modern Family||ABC||Already Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Already Renewed|
|The Middle||ABC||Already Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Already Renewed|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Already Renewed|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Already Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Already Renewed|
|The Simpsons||Fox||Already Renewed|
|30 Rock||NBC||Already Renewed|
*Though I’ve seen no official confirmation as far as renewal for next season for ‘American Dad’ it will have enough episodes left to air some next season whether it’s renewed or not. At this point nothing would surprise me much, including flipping ‘Bobs Burgers’ to the Sunday 7:30p timeslot and moving ‘American Dad’ back in the primary lineup.