When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

The Renew/Cancel reports are delayed because we won’t see the Sunday finals until Wednesday.  Bill is on vacation but still plans on doing the indices, look for them late Wednesday.

Someone e-mailed asking whether it was possible that NBC would cancel all its bubble shows.   I’d say it is. It wouldn’t surprise me if NBC does that and at this point I consider that option a toss up.

The decisions with Community, Outsourced and Parks & Recreation will be interesting.

Community fans can rightfully say “but we have to go up against The Big Bang Theory AND American Idol, we’d do as well as Parks and Recreation at 9:30!”  But Outsourced fans can sing a variation of that tune, too.  I’ve still got Outsourced on the bubble due to its 9:30 performance.  Its  last original at 9:30 (a 2.5 rating) was better than Parks and Recreation’s 2.2 rating last Thursday.

I’ve come to my senses after Monday and moved Harry’s Law to the bubble from “likely to be renewed.”

Money matters, so Warner Bros could certainly entice NBC to renew Chuck again with deep discounts. But Chuck doesn’t seemed destined for big syndicated money, so steep discounting on that basis seems unlikely.  Of course, to quote Charles Barkley: I may be wrong…but I doubt it.   Fans should cross their fingers and hope the ratings goes up.  That’s what I’ll be doing.

Shows that average 90% of the network’s scripted average are typically renewed, but for broadcast networks not named “The CW”, the averages aren’t usually as low as NBC’s where since January, 90% of the scripted average works out to less than a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating (technically a little less than a 1.9 rating).

Here’s a look at NBC’s scripted shows:

Outlaw NBC Already Canceled
Undercovers NBC Already Canceled
The Cape NBC Certain To Be Canceled
Perfect Couples NBC Certain To Be Canceled
The Event NBC Likely To Be Canceled
Chuck NBC On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Law & Order: Los Angeles NBC On The Bubble
Outsourced NBC On The Bubble
Harry’s Law NBC On The Bubble
Parenthood NBC Likely To Be Renewed
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely To Be Renewed
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain To Be Renewed
The Office NBC Certain To Be Renewed
30 Rock NBC Already Renewed

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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