When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.  That’s all well and good, though admittedly it is a bit of a cowardly “push” to predict that the outcome could go either way (AKA “on the bubble”) for some shows.

But one man’s cowardly is another man’s prudently. Sometimes things get left on the bubble due to not having not enough information. Mr. Sunshine stays on the bubble because I’m pretty sure, but not certain ABC will launch another comedy block for next fall.  If they don’t, Mr. Sunshine is more likely to be canceled than renewed. If they do, it’s probably more likely to be renewed than canceled pending the performance of Happy Endings.

That’s pretty straightforward, but sometimes…

Nope, We’re Not Nuts to Have The Good Wife on the Bubble

Cowardly, perhaps. But not nuts. Prudent!  CBS’s situation is more complex and speaking for myself, more interesting. The Good Wife is CBS’s lowest-rated Sunday-Thursday scripted show. Yep, The Good Wife has critical acclaim, and personally, I’m a fan. But if CBS is keeping  it around for syndication purposes, it has to be renewed for two more seasons.  Its ratings will very likely get worse if moved to Friday not better. So a move to Fridays to get it to syndication means knowing it will have to stomach two years of lower Friday ratings. It’s either that or suffer one more season of sub par ratings before moving it to Fridays.

Critical Acclaim Doesn’t Pay CBS’s Shareholders Dividends

I know CBS is on record of trying to use 10pm as a place to shepherd along shows to get them to syndication. But I’m not sure CBS thinks The Good Wife’s syndication prospects are all that great even if it gets to 88 episodes. The prospects just don’t seem all that great in terms of a lucrative deal. If CBS renews The Good Wife, it’s renewing it just so they can claim some critical success with a drama. With not much critical praise for CBS’s drama offerings, is it a good enough reason?

They’ll Never Cancel Blue Bloods It Gets Over Ten Million Viewers on a Friday!

That’s the frequent rally cry from people who don’t believe the adults 18-49 demographic matters.  But it does matter and on that basis, it’s easy to put CSI: NY ahead of Blue Bloods. For now I’m keeping them both on the bubble because while CSI: NY rates better, heading into its 8th season it will likely be much more expensive than a Blue Bloods heading into its second season.

Changes this week:

  • Bob’s Burgers renewed
  • Chaos downgraded to certain cancelation
  • Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior Downgraded to likely cancellation
  • CSI: Miami upgraded to likely renewal
  • Hawaii Five-0 upgraded to certain renewal
  • The Good Wife upgraded to likely renewal (yep, even with the discussion above, I couldn’t talk myself out of it – we’ll see if I change my mind before season’s end.)

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.

Show Network Status
My Generation ABC Canceled
The Whole Truth ABC Canceled
Medium CBS Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Canceled
Lone Star Fox Canceled
Running Wilde Fox Canceled
The Good Guys Fox Canceled
Chase NBC Canceled
Outlaw NBC Canceled
Perfect Couples NBC Effectively Canceled
The Cape NBC Effectively Canceled
Undercovers NBC Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Certain Cancellation
No Ordinary Family ABC Certain Cancellation
Off The Map ABC Certain Cancellation
Chaos CBS Certain Cancellation
The Defenders CBS Certain Cancellation
Traffic Light Fox Certain Cancellation
The Event NBC Certain Cancellation
Better With You ABC Likely Cancellation
Brothers & Sisters ABC Likely Cancellation
V ABC Likely Cancellation
$#*! My Dad Says CBS Likely Cancellation
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior CBS Likely Cancellation
Mad Love CBS Likely Cancellation
Human Target Fox Likely Cancellation
The Chicago Code Fox Likely Cancellation
Outsourced NBC Likely Cancellation
Body of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Mr. Sunshine ABC On The Bubble
Blue Bloods CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Hellcats CW On The Bubble
Lie To Me Fox On The Bubble
Chuck NBC On The Bubble
Law & Order: Los Angeles NBC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
Rules of Engagement CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
90210′ CW Likely Renewal
Gossip Girl CW Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
One Tree Hill CW Likely Renewal
Harry’s Law NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Desperate Housewives ABC Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Bones Fox Certain Renewal
House Fox Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
Castle ABC Renewed
Cougar Town ABC Renewed
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewed
Modern Family ABC Renewed
Private Practice ABC Renewed
The Middle ABC Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
30 Rock NBC Renewed
Community NBC Renewed
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewed
The Office NBC Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewed, But…
Smallville CW Final Season

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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