Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 6, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||😳||0.44|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.55|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.60|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||😐 😐 😐||0.67|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.74|
|CSI: Miami||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|$#*! My Dad Says||😥 😥||0.93|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Mad Love||😐 😐 😐||0.97|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Rules of Engagement||1.04|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.21|
|Mike & Molly||1.22|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.27|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.39|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.54|
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior ratings improved again last week, and it seems to be settling firmly into the “more likely to be renewed than cancelled” range.
I’m sure there were fans of The Good Wife and Blue Bloods (and perhaps CSI: Miami and CSI: NY) who had hoped for it to fail spectacularly, because if it stays on the CBS schedule, one of those shows will have to be cancelled instead.
With Charlie Sheen out of Two And A Half Men, the thread of hope for the marginal CBS sitcoms Mad Love and $#*! My Dad Says got a tiny bit stronger. Their ratings still don’t favor renewal, but without the TAAHM troubles, their epitaphs would already be written.
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is at least somewhat uncertain.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.