Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 17, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Medium (F)||😥 😥||0.39|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.61|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.79|
|The Defenders||😐 😐 😐||0.80|
|CSI: Miami||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|CSI||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|Rules of Engagement||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|$#*! My Dad Says||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.06|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.11|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.15|
|Mike & Molly||1.19|
|Big Bang Theory||1.40|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.48|
It’s deja vu all over again.
In recent seasons, CBS has fielded line ups with relatively few clear ratings losers. When we predict cancellation for CBS shows which on other networks would be keepers, the fan laments are always the same:
“They’ll NEVER cancel XYZ it ALWAYS wins its timeslot!” (like Ghost Whisperer, and Numb3rs)
“XYZ has eleventy jillion average viewers, NO WAY it gets cancelled!” (like Cold Case’s 10 million )
And so on.
These fans are blind to the fact that CBS will cancel 4 to 4.5 hours worth of scripted shows that are currently airing on their Fall schedule to make room for new shows next season, based on its recent record:
- 2009-10: 6 shows, 4.5 hours cancelled (three sitcoms)
- 2008-9: 5 shows, 4.5 hours cancelled (one sitcom)
- 2007-8: 4 shows, 4 hours cancelled (no sitcoms)
Those 4 to 4.5 hours worth of shows will almost certainly come from this list (as well as mid-season replacements, which would have to already replace something on this list):
- CSI: NY
- Blue Bloods
- The Good Wife
- The Defenders
- $#*! My Dad Says (lowest rated sitcom)
Fans who think otherwise are free to suggest which shows not on that list will get cancelled instead. I see little chance that CBS cancels fewer than four hours worth of shows now in its line up.
No other CBS show seems in danger of cancellation now, but CSI’s ratings suggest this is likely its last season at 9pm Thursday.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.