Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 3, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Medium (F)||😥 😥||0.39|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.56|
|Blue Bloods (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.63|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.76|
|The Defenders||😐 😐 😐||0.82|
|Rules of Engagement||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|CSI: Miami||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|CSI||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.07|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.10|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.13|
|Mike & Molly||1.15|
|Big Bang Theory||1.41|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.47|
When is “good” not “good enough”? When you’re the lowest rated new drama on CBS’ Fall schedule.
After two episodes, The Defenders has averaged a 2.7 adults 18-49 rating. Better than almost all new, and many veteran, shows on competing networks. Sadly for The Defenders, CBS has at least two hour long dramas on the bench for mid-season (Criminal Minds 2, Chaos) and they’ll need to make room for them. At this point I think the best hope for the show surviving an entire season is if CBS doesn’t have a full season of Undercover Boss on Sunday night (that hasn’t yet been announced).
After one week, Medium’s 1.4 adults 18-49 rating, plus its syndication deal with Lifetime (which pays a reported $1.3 million/episode) made me hold off making a call on the show’s future. But a 1.2 rating last week makes me suddenly more psychic, “Hmmm….I see a show in its final season”.
CSI:NY also looks like it may be in its final season. Too soon to be certain, but that’s the way the ratings are leaning.
The Good Wife’s 2.5 adults 18-49 premiere rating was, to be charitable, underwhelming. An Emmy win keeps it in the “Toss Up” category for now, but if it slips much more, it won’t matter what hardware’s on the show’s mantlepiece.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.