Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 14, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|90210||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.89|
|One Tree Hill||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Hellcats||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Gossip Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|Nikita||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.01|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.10|
There’s been some discussion in our comments about whether Nikita is in danger of cancellation because of its ratings. I don’t think it is. Based on comparing Nikita ratings vs. Supernatural’s last season, I don’t think Nikita’s in any particular danger at this point.
Last season through the second weekend in November, in the 9pm Thursday slot Supernatural averaged 69% of 8pm’s The Vampire Diaries’ adults 18-49 ratings. This season Nikita has averaged 67% of The Vampire Diaries ratings, virtually the same ratio. Supernatural was shipped off to Friday this season. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if that happened to Nikita next season. Cancellation doesn’t seem to be in the cards for Nikita at this point though.
With the announcement that Life Unexpected isn’t getting any extra episodes except for the 13 already ordered, it’s all over except for the fan wailing, and maybe bingo playing. The show is certain to be cancelled after its 13 episodes finish.
The recent adults 18-49 ratings for 90210, One Tree Hill, Gossip Girl, Hellcats and Nikita are so close that they all look more likely to be renewed than cancelled. I don’t expect much clarity on their ratings until after the New Year, since the CW is close to entering its 2 month repeat hiatus.
Smallville is in its final season, and Supernatural’s adults 18-49 ratings on Friday are so good that the CW would be nuts to get rid of it regardless of its women 18-34 ratings.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.