Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 10, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|90210||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.86|
|One Tree Hill||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|Hellcats||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Gossip Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.02|
|Nikita||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.08|
Again last week, every scripted show except the CW’s best and worst rated scored between a 0.9 and a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating. Some went up, some down, with no obvious trend. Their season 18-49 ratings averages are so close together they all look reasonably likely to be renewed for next season (except, of course, Smallville), barring a non ratings cause like producer or actor fatigue.
Life Unexpected is the only CW show certain to be cancelled at this point. I don’t expect Life Unexpected to be pulled before it finishes its entire episode order this season. It isn’t doing any worse relatively than Melrose Place was last season, and the CW even added some episodes to Melrose’s order. The only thing that might take Life Unexpected out of the schedule early is if the CW has an hour long show waiting for mid-season that it wants to get into the line up. I couldn’t guess about that.
How many shows will the CW cancel this season? With Smallville in its final season, my guess is that they cancel 1-3 additional shows (including mid-season replacements) to leave 2-4 slots free for new shows next season. Last season the CW cancelled 2 shows (The Beautiful Life, Melrose Place).
It’s important to remember that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.