Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Hellcats||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.80|
|Gossip Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|90210||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|Nikita||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|One Tree Hill||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.06|
The last several weeks have been notable as most CW shows ratings have trended downward. Each week’s ratings have prompted cries of “Nikita will be cancelled,” “Hellcats is doomed,” and more.
Case in point, when Hellcats drew just a 0.6 adults 18-49 rating last week the knives were out, but Gossip Girl and 90210 managed just 0.7 (preliminary) ratings last night.
The fact is, when all the CW shows are caught in a ratings downdraft it’s not bad news for any particular show, just for the network itself.
We joke about it with the lovable cancellation bear, but the fact remains that only the relative ratings between shows on the same network matter to their renewal and cancellation. The fact that CW ratings compared to other networks are low matters not for their individual shows, the CW doesn’t have the choice to renew NCIS!
As for “The CW is doomed! Why is it even in business?’, the conventional wisdom is that it operates at a loss itself, but that its owners, CBS and Warner Brothers, balance that with the value generated in licensing and DVD sales for the shows they produce for the network. That’s why you’ll never see any scripted content on the CW not produced by those two.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.