This is the final week of Renew / Cancel posts for the season, since the Fall 2011 schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
|The Chicago Code||25%||43%|
|Lie To Me||25%||30%|
Will the renewal of Breaking In be a retentionista head explosion event, or its cancellation a reminder of Romantically Challenged? Stay tuned.
Update: You didn’t have to stay tuned for very long, Breaking In, The Chicago Code, Lie To Me, Traffic Light as well as Human Target have all been cancelled. The Slater jinx lives!
The renewal of any of the three drama ratings laggards would surprise, but not shock, me. Any renewals among them would indicate Fox’s relative dissatisfaction with its Fall drama pilot situation.
For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – May 8, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.75|
|The Chicago Code||😥 😥||0.76|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.86|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.96|
|Breaking In||😐 😐 😐||1.05|
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.