Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-23, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Human Target (F)||😥 😥||0.46|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.60|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.62|
|Fringe (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.70|
|American Dad||😐 😐 😐||0.73|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||1.05|
|Bob’s Burgers||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.12|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.28|
Fringe scored a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating in its Friday timeslot premiere. I don’t care what Fox chief Kevin Reilly said, if a scripted show can maintain 70% of its network’s overall adults 18-49 ratings average on Friday past experience (almost entirely with CBS shows) indicates it will be renewed. However, Fringe fans should not celebrate too early. One episode, is one episode, and its right at 70% of Fox’s scripted show average. Hang on for the ride.
Bob’s Burgers ratings last Sunday were below those for American Dad on the same night. Because of that, I’m moving it into the “toss up” category as well (even though its ratings average as reflected by the Index would have it higher). It’s clear that Fox is trying to replace American Dad, so it will stay as a “toss up”, but it’s no longer clear that Bob’s Burgers will hang around to be that replacement.
Lie To Me did unusually well last night (numbers not in the table above yet), but I don’t think that changes the fate of the show. It’s still more likely to be cancelled than renewed, as is Human Target. (note separate lines above for HT Friday and non-Friday airings).
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.