Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 3, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||😳||0.27|
|Fringe||😐 😐 😐||0.67|
|Running Wilde||😥 😥||0.72|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|American Dad||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.04|
The declining ratings for Fox’s new Running Wilde put Fox in a scheduling box. Even though Running Wilde’s ratings say “cancel me”, what does Fox put in its half hour timeslot in its place? Double up Raising Hope? Raising Hope repeats? Animated repeats? Start another rookie show in November? None are particularly appealing options. Note: Raising Hope will take the entire 9pm hour for a special Halloween themed episode and a regular episode on October 26 pre-empting Running Wilde that night.
Projecting the future of Fringe is going to be as difficult as guessing the future of previous year’s CBS Wednesday “comedy block” when ratings losers like New Adventures of Old Christine were kept alive for several years with the overriding goal of establishing a CBS comedy beachhead on Wednesday. Their ratings were cancel-worthy, but CBS suffered for a few years before finally giving up on them.
It’s a somewhat similar situation for Fringe. Fox wants to improve its Thursday ratings performance, and last year Fringe did that, but it’s getting harder to see that argument continuing as Fringe ratings slide. Does Fox throw in the towel and put reality at 9pm Thursday? Very difficult to guess.
The Good Guys is certain to be cancelled. I’d expect it to be pulled before the November sweeps period, but even if it continues, it won’t be back once all its new episodes air.
Hanging over the entire Fox Fall schedule is the fact that The X-Factor will be taking 3 of the 10 Monday-Friday primetime hours come next Fall. After Lone Star’s cancellation, that still leaves at least 2 hours that are on the schedule now that must go.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.