Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Human Target (F)||😥 😥||0.46|
|Fringe (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.63|
|Traffic Light||😥 😥||0.70|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.71|
|American Dad||😐 😐 😐||0.72|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.81|
|The Chicago Code||😐 😐 😐||0.88|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||1.01|
|Bob’s Burgers||😐 😐 😐||1.04|
Following big Super Bowl promotion, The Chicago Code premiered to just a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, right in the middle of the “toss up” range. Its preliminary rating last night fell to just a 2.0 (not yet in the calculation above). At that level, it’s not coming back, but for this week it remains as a “toss up”.
Traffic Light joined the Fox line up last week following Raising Hope, but its 1.9 adults 18-49 rating puts it squarely into “likely to be cancelled” territory.
Fringe’s fourth Friday ratings slid again, down to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating. If it can’t bounce back from that level, it’s a goner.
I’m not sure how to handicap the race between Bob’s Burgers and American Dad. Fox clearly wants to replace American Dad with something else (and has ordered two additional animated shows), but Bob’s Burgers chances of survival are slipping with its ratings (although its big premiere ratings will keep its average high for a time).
Both Lie To Me and Human Target are more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.