After saying that if Fringe kept 100% of its Thursday ratings once it moved to Friday that it would be a big win for Fox, Fox entertainment president Kevin Reilly then lowered that to 90%.  Then he lowered it to 80%.    But 80% of what?  If it was against the 1.9 adults 18-49 rating Fringe was pulling at the end of its Thursday run, that would work out to be around a 1.5 rating.  But remember, Fringe had a 2.0 rating or better adults 18-49 rating for three out of its first four Thursdays.  I wouldn’t take Reilly’s words to mean Fringe is a lock for a renewal at a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating.

Others have noted that the tweets by @MaskedScheduler don’t make it seem like Fox is particularly happy with a 1.5 (or even a 1.6).   And check your “who cares what some random guy on Twitter says” at the door.  When not on Twitter, @maskedscheduler is an executive vice president at Fox who also happens to be in charge of scheduling.

On the plus side, I believe he is genuinely a fan of Fringe and not just because he works at Fox. But without saying it explicitly, the implication seems to be that Fringe needs to be around a 1.8 adults 18-49 rating.

My guess is that a 1.5 isn’t good enough.  But I’d also guess as the weather warms up and daylight saving time returns, Fringe’s ratings will slip below a 1.5 and end the discussion.   In fairness though the 1.6 adults 18-49 average through six episodes is better than I expected, but not  quite good enough to keep it “on the bubble.”

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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