Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐||0.85|
|Harry’s Law||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
|Community||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
|Parenthood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.22|
|Parks & Recreation||1.25|
|Law & Order: LA||returns 4/11|
NBC gets a lot of grief for the network’s woeful ratings. And rightly so.
But because its ratings for scripted shows are so much lower than the rest of the major broadcast networks, its ratings threshold for show renewal is correspondingly lower. Shows with ratings like Community & Harry’s Law would likely be cancelled on ABC, CBS or Fox, but on NBC they’re more likely to be renewed than cancelled. Think of it this way, NBC’s cancellation bear is a lot slower than the rest of the big broadcast network’s, because its targets are also a lot slower!
Slow or not, Harry’s Law has opened up a meaningful ratings advantage vs. Chuck in their race against the cancellation bear, and is now at the lower end of the more likely to be renewed than cancelled range. Chuck remains a toss up for renewal.
Law & Order: LA returns to NBC’s schedule on April 11. We’ll update its prospects then.
Perfect Couples and The Event are both certain to be cancelled. The Cape is off NBC’s schedule, and its last episode is only available online. That’s as close to an announcement of cancellation as you’ll get.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.