Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 3, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐||0.86|
|Harry’s Law||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||1.23|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.27|
|Law & Order: LA||returns 4/11|
Against the NCAA Men’s Basketball championship last night, the Harry’s Law season finale plunged to a series low (preliminary) 1.3 adults 18-49 rating (not yet in the calculations above, but will not change them much next week). Were the show’s situation a toss up before, that might be worrying, but NBC is in such dire shape, that its past ratings record, which would cause the show to be cancelled on ABC, CBS or Fox is still more likely to get it renewed than cancelled on NBC.
Commenters suggesting that the squinty jillion average viewers that are drawn to Harry’s Law will save the show need to recognize that’s complete nonsense. Average viewership has no effect on broadcast primetime ad pricing, it’s based on adults 18-49 ratings. The only thing saving Harry’s Law is the pitiful ratings for the rest of NBC’s line up.
Chuck continues just ahead of the jaws of the cancellation bear. There was no new Chuck last week or this week. Fans will have to wait until next Monday for more ratings news.
Perfect Couples and The Event are both certain to be cancelled. The Cape is off NBC’s schedule, and its last episode was only available online. The sane will realize that’s as close to a cancellation announcement as they’re going to get. Outsourced is still more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.