Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 17, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Friday Night Lights||final season||0.45|
|The Paul Reiser Show||😳||0.56|
|Law & Order: LA||😥 😥||0.76|
|Harry’s Law||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||1.26|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.28|
The legions of fans claiming a network has killed their favorite show for one reason or another are legendary here at TVBTN, but in the case of Law & Order: Los Angeles, I think they might have a point.
Last fall, LOLA was averaging almost exactly the NBC scripted show average rating, and was doing better than the average NBC drama. Then NBC held it off the schedule for a lengthy hiatus, rejiggered the cast, changed the timeslot and brought it back last week to a poor 1.5 premiere rating, and last night it sank to a woeful 1.1 adults 18-49 rating (not yet in the calculation above).
Fans who want to claim “Those clowns at NBC killed the show!” will, in this isolated case, get no argument from me.
Don’t let the spring ratings average for Chuck fool you, its last two 1.3 adults 18-49 ratings can’t drag the Index down as far (yet) as the prospects for the show have now fallen, and NBC’s cancellation bear is within range.
And while I don’t think anyone held much hope for The Paul Reiser Show before its premiere, they shouldn’t hold any hope for it now.
Even though the Harry’s Law finale plunged to a series low 1.4 adults 18-49 rating against the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final its overall ratings make it more likely to be renewed than cancelled. If you’re a low rated show, it’s best to be on NBC!
The Event is certain to be cancelled. Perfect Couples was pulled off NBC’s schedule with episodes left to air. That, plus its woeful ratings, equal cancellation. The Cape is off NBC’s schedule, and its last episode was only available online. The sane will realize that’s as close to a cancellation announcement as they’re going to get. Outsourced is still more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.