Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐||0.84|
|Harry’s Law||😐 😐 😐||0.90|
|Community||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.92|
|Parenthood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.20|
|Parks & Recreation||1.22|
|Law & Order: LA||pending||#DIV/0!|
NBC’s three hours of “Comedy Night Done Right” on Thursday has proved a fertile ground for jokes after its ratings slide, but unless NBC keeps three hours of sitcoms on its schedule somewhere Outsourced is certain to be cancelled. (I still have it as just “likely” at this point, because I think NBC is reasonably likely to expand to 3 sitcom hours next Fall).
But it’s not just fans of Outsourced who should be rooting for three hours of sitcoms. In a two hour sitcom line up, to keep both Community and Parks & Recreation NBC would have to either premiere no new sitcoms at all in the Fall (while reportedly piloting 12 new comedies), or split the seasons of one or more sitcoms (that leads to additional costs). That, plus the fact that NBC’s recent drama record has been poor, has me guessing that NBC’s sitcom time will be expanded.
Based on their most recent several weeks of ratings, Chuck and Harry’s Law are nearly neck and neck and almost exactly the same distance from the cancellation bear. That doesn’t mean they’re in an either/or situation, they could both be renewed or cancelled, but it just might boil down to a choice of one or the other.
Since they’ve yet to premiere this spring, I don’t have any predictions for The Event (which likely has dim prospects considering its Fall ratings), or Law & Order: LA (seemed likely to be renewed based on its Fall ratings, but after being pulled out of the line up for retooling who knows what problems may lie unseen).
Perfect Couples and The Cape are both certain to be cancelled.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.