Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through December 5, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐||0.85|
|Community||😐 😐 😐||0.90|
|Parenthood||😐 😐 😐||0.94|
|Law & Order: LA||😐 😐 😐||0.98|
|The Event||😥 😥||1.00|
|30 Rock||already renewed||1.09|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.11|
|Outsourced||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.20|
I don’t think there’s any other scripted broadcast show this season that seems to inspire the wide assortment of ire on our site that NBC’s rookie sitcom Outsourced does.
There’s the subject hate “A show about people losing their jobs, nice!”. The racial stereotype hate “It’s racist towards Indians! (or Americans!, or anyone!, take your pick!)”.
Discuss those things amongst yourselves if you’re interested, the cancellation bear doesn’t care.
What the cancellation bear cannot understand is the retentionista hate “Look at how many viewers it loses from The Office!”
Retentionista’s are the term I use for folks who judge the future of every show by the “retention” of its lead in show’s ratings. Applied as a standard metric for every show it’s either impossible (8pm shows!) or often misleading.
Even so, let’s examine the retentionista argument against Outsourced’s ratings.
This season, Outsourced’s 2.69 adults 18-49 rating (Live+Same Day) is 71% of The Office’s 3.77 rating. That 71% retention has the retentionistas up in arms.
However, last season, new episodes of 30 Rock averaged 76% of the ratings of new Office episodes they followed (2.91 vs. 3.85). I’m sure the retentionistas howled about that at the time too. Look at how uselessly predictive that was.
As it turns out, because of NBC’s spring scheduling move of Outsourced to 10:30pm, how Outsourced fares in the spring will likely mean more than its Fall ratings anyway, but the bear isn’t betting against it at this point.
The Event still looks more likely to be cancelled than renewed. Chuck, Parenthood, and Law & Order:LA could all go either way.
Why is The Event’s Index relatively high, yet its prognosis so bleak? Its early season ratings were so high, and it has fallen so far, so quickly, its average has not yet caught up with its current ratings situation.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.