Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-30, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outsourced||😐 😐 😐||0.80|
|Perfect Couples||😐 😐 😐||0.82|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐||0.86|
|The Cape||😥 😥||0.86|
|Harry’s Law||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|Parenthood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Community||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.11|
|Parks & Recreation||1.34|
|Law & Order: LA||pending|
The cancellation bear didn’t have to wait long for his first NBC meal of the season. The Cape’s ratings have fallen each week, and are now firmly in the “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” range.
Note that The Cape’s ratings average, and its Index, has still not yet declined to the extent that its most recent ratings would indicate.
To say there’s lots of discussion swirling around our site about the prospects for Chuck’s renewal is the understatement of the year. Whatever the commenters may say, the ratings still say “toss up”.
Harry’s Law ratings held steady in its third episode. The Renew / Cancel index does not attempt to guess future ratings, but past ratings indicate the show is more likely to be renewed than cancelled.
Perfect Couples hopes for renewal took a big hit last week, and now it’s no better than a toss up for renewal.
Outsourced ratings bounced back a tick last week, it’s hanging on at the bottom of the “toss up” range.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.