Every season I make my predictions, and every season there’s at least one prediction (sometimes more!) that turns out to be a big goof.

Last year’s biggest surprises were probably Chuck & Fringe which were predicted “likely canceled” when they were both eventually renewed. There were no shows last season that were predicted “certain to be canceled” that were renewed. The biggest surprise of all was probably the Dollhouse renewal in spring 2009. I think there’s still egg somewhere on my face over that.

What’s your guess on the biggest prediction goof this season?

The poll below contains all the shows that my Renew/Cancel Index predicts are either “certain to be canceled” or “likely to be canceled”. Instead of listing all the shows predicted as “certain” or “likely to be renewed” I created a single item for all of them (and that’s a long shot pick, I’ve never had a “certain” to be renewed show canceled, and I think 24 was the only “likely” show, but there may have been a couple of others).

My opinion is that being wrong on a “likely” isn’t nearly the goof as being wrong on a “certain”, and that my “toss up” prediction is a “no guts, no glory, no shame” option. but I’m sure commenters may disagree. Feel free to elaborate in the comments.

Note that Robert’s Bubble Watch predictions are similar, but not exactly the same. Let’s keep this guessing to just *my* predictions. Robert can do his own post later if he wishes.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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