Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through September 26, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||😳||0.29|
|Fringe||😐 😐 😐||0.69|
|Running Wilde||😐 😐 😐||0.79|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.88|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.01|
Again, a show was cancelled by the broadcast networks before I could make a Renew / Cancel Index post about it, even though I started two weeks earlier this season!
With Lone Star already cancelled, it’s not much of a stretch to predict that The Good Guys will be the next show to leave Fox’s schedule. It had poor ratings over the summer, and returned to bad ratings last Friday. I’d expect it to air in its timeslot until the November sweeps period begins (which would make its last airdate October 22), and then be pulled from the schedule to be burned off at another time (maybe a Christmas Eve marathon!).
Not clear what happens to Fringe. It was renewed last season with slightly below the “renewal line” ratings in its difficult timeslot, so I’m not going to predict cancellation until there’s a lot more weeks of ratings.
Fox’s new Running Wilde didn’t do particularly well, but I don’t think it’s in any danger yet. An interesting logistical hurdle Fox faces is that were RW to be cancelled, they’d have to run Raising Hope repeats in that slot unless they put animated repeats there. Neither are a particularly good option.
Hanging over the entire Fox fall schedule is the fact that The X-Factor will be taking 3 of the 10 Monday-Friday primetime hours come next fall. After Lone Star, that still leaves at least 2 hours that are on the schedule now that must go.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.