Mood: still tired and cranky, but as upbeat as ever about Chuck’s renewal prospects.

For a few hearty souls, the days are just zipping by and day fifteen will be here in the blink of an eye.  But for a large contingent, the “fifteen days of Chuck” can’t end soon enough.

As expected, the Nielsen logjam broke before any formal announcement about Chuck was made.  We have the overnight reports through Monday and Nielsen plans to be all caught up by Friday afternoon.   We finally have the weekly information up, too.  Bill has revised his chances of Chuck’s renewal from 75% last week to 95% this week.   At the time Bill predicted 75% I had predicted 86%, and just to be slightly more optimistic than Bill, I’ll revise my original number to 97%.

What’s the difference between 97% and 100%?  It’s larger than it might appear.  If you could get 100% assurances of winning a $500 million dollar lottery if you bought $500,000 worth of tickets, you’d mortgage your house and if there wasn’t enough money you’d sell everything you own on EBay.    You wouldn’t think twice about it because you were guaranteed to win the $500 million!  But if you switch it up, even a little, say to 97%, things start to look a bit different.  If you had even a 3% chance of losing everything you owned, including your house, you might not want to risk it.

Be optimistic on Chuck’s return, but think twice before being so optimistic you’d bet your house on it.

In other news, fan boys are w00ting it up over a very poor showing for Deal or No Deal in the Monday 8pm timeslot, where it pulled in a 1.2 rating for adults 18-49, only half of what what Chuck was doing recently.  I don’t read that as necessarily a good sign for Chuck.  It is a bad sign for NBC, who apparently still though Deal or No Deal could bring it some May Sweeps joy, either that or they figured, “what the hell, it hardly costs anything to put on the air, and it’s guaranteed to do better than Kings!”

Again, I’m not sure that it means anything at all for Chuck’s prospects, but it certainly isn’t a bad sign.  And if nothing else, if Deal or No Deal had reeled in a 3.0 adults 18-49 rating the fans would’ve completely freaked and it could’ve gotten ugly.  I know there are more than a few Chuck haters who wished it would’ve gone down like that.  Unless NBC pulls it from the schedule, the haters will get another chance to wish upon a star next week when Deal or No Deal is scheduled to air on Monday at 8pm again.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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