When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

CSI Guessing Game!

Bill wrote a few weeks ago that despite being wrong about at least one CSI being canceled last season, he again thinks at least one will be gone from the 2012-13 schedule. I concur. Bill wrote:

I think the original CSI has the best chance at renewal, and CSI: Miami and CSI:NY are about even. Sadly for my prediction purposes, it’s very likely that the syndication economics, completely hidden to us, will be the main determining factor on which of them stays and which goes.

There’s a zero percent chance that CBS will send us the forensic evidence we need (the syndication economics) to do more than guess. Like Bill, unburdened by factual economic data, I too think the original CSI has the best shot at being renewed. Based purely on anecdotal popularity and the occasional story on international syndication, I give a slight edge to CSI: Miami over CSI: NY.

After CSI: NY hit lows in the preliminary ratings for Friday, some commenters suggested CSI: NY should now be designated likely to be canceled. Though already leaning in that direction, I’m not reacting to one December Friday when all CBS shows were down and what happened on Friday didn’t change the relative landscape. I think only two will be back and that CSI: NY is the least likely candidate to survive, but I’m still not ready to put it in the likely cancellation heap. Yet.

How many CSIs do you think will return?

The Mentalist Now On The Bubble

Yep, only a couple of weeks ago I wasn’t yet ready to put The Mentalist on the Bubble, but things change. Bill quietly downgraded it in Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel Index for CBS. I agree and am quietly (its not in the headline) downgrading it too. CBS has a lot of hour long shows on the bubble now — I have 7 here, Bill actually has 8 “toss ups” but I still think it more likely The Good Wife will be renewed than canceled.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie’s Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Harry’s Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Body of Proof ABC Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
CSI CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
Person of Interest CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Unforgettable CBS On The Bubble
Bones Fox On The Bubble
House Fox On The Bubble
Raising Hope Fox On The Bubble
Terra Nova Fox On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Ringer CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Whitney NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
90210′ CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
The Secret Circle CW Likely Renewal
Grimm NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Castle ABC Certain Renewal
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season

Click here for previous Bubble Watch posts.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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