When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
CSI Guessing Game!
Bill wrote a few weeks ago that despite being wrong about at least one CSI being canceled last season, he again thinks at least one will be gone from the 2012-13 schedule. I concur. Bill wrote:
I think the original CSI has the best chance at renewal, and CSI: Miami and CSI:NY are about even. Sadly for my prediction purposes, it’s very likely that the syndication economics, completely hidden to us, will be the main determining factor on which of them stays and which goes.
There’s a zero percent chance that CBS will send us the forensic evidence we need (the syndication economics) to do more than guess. Like Bill, unburdened by factual economic data, I too think the original CSI has the best shot at being renewed. Based purely on anecdotal popularity and the occasional story on international syndication, I give a slight edge to CSI: Miami over CSI: NY.
After CSI: NY hit lows in the preliminary ratings for Friday, some commenters suggested CSI: NY should now be designated likely to be canceled. Though already leaning in that direction, I’m not reacting to one December Friday when all CBS shows were down and what happened on Friday didn’t change the relative landscape. I think only two will be back and that CSI: NY is the least likely candidate to survive, but I’m still not ready to put it in the likely cancellation heap. Yet.
How many CSIs do you think will return?
The Mentalist Now On The Bubble
Yep, only a couple of weeks ago I wasn’t yet ready to put The Mentalist on the Bubble, but things change. Bill quietly downgraded it in Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel Index for CBS. I agree and am quietly (its not in the headline) downgrading it too. CBS has a lot of hour long shows on the bubble now — I have 7 here, Bill actually has 8 “toss ups” but I still think it more likely The Good Wife will be renewed than canceled.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|Private Practice||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Person of Interest||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Unforgettable||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Bones||Fox||On The Bubble|
|House||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Raising Hope||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Terra Nova||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Ringer||CW||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Up All Night||NBC||Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings|
|Whitney||NBC||Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Secret Circle||CW||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|