When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!
Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.
Beauty and the Beast Downgraded
I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty and the Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty and the Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty and the Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a retentionista!
Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”
I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash. Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.
Body of Proof
It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Canceled|
|Zero Hour||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Perhaps already cancelled|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||Likely Cancellation|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|The New Normal||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Body of Proof||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Mentalist, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Following, The||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Middle, The||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries, The||CW||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final SeasonFinished|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final SeasonFinished|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|