When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
As we get deeper into December and reruns and specials dominate, I thought I would take the opportunity to review why my predictions are what they are, on a network-by-network basis. Next up, The CW, which spiced up a dull month by finally releasing their midseason schedule.
The CW Fall Summary
Hart of Dixie
After the February 10th airing, moves to Fridays @ 9 starting March 21st
Pro: Did okay thrown under The Voice; needs a fourth season for syndication. Even Nikita received a (sort of) fourth season. The CW seems committed to airing first-run shows on Fridays.
Odds of renewal: 95%
Beauty & the Beast
After the March 10th airing, goes on hiatus
Pro: Enough rookies could fail that The CW needs something for Fridays next season.
Con: The worst rated Monday – Thursday show on The CW. Being pulled off the air. Being thrown under the Olympics. As a second season show, the renewal would effectively be for two seasons.
Odds of renewal: 10%
Pro: Considering it doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in like The Blacklist, arguably the biggest (relative) hit of the season.
Odds of renewal: 100%
Pro: The #2 show on the network, despite all the timeslots it has had in the past. No public statements about costs getting out of control.
Con: The show is ancient. It is literally older than the network it airs on. Eventually, either the talent will want to leave or the costs will grow too high to be sustainable (even if it isn’t this year).
Odds of renewal: 95%
Pro: Still holding strong in season 2.
Odds of renewal: 100%
The Tomorrow People
After the March 12th airing, moves to Mondays @ 9 starting March 17th
Pro: Genre shows have survived on Mondays (Chuck, Heroes, Fringe, etc.) Whatever the minimum survival level on Mondays for The CW is, it isn’t very high.
Con: If it could only manage a 0.5 against The X-Factor this week, what will it manage opposite The Voice? (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Cancellation Predicted”.)
Odds of renewal: 20%
The Vampire Diaries
Pro: The #1 show on the network.
Odds of renewal: 100%
Pro: It wasn’t moved at midseason. Now takes the pole position for “Show The CW renews because they don’t want to launch 4+ shows at once in Fall”. (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Renewal Predicted”.)
Con: American Idol should be stronger competition than The X-Factor. Not a clear hit (its average is over three tenths less than Arrow/Supernatural/The Vampire Diaries/The Originals). If The 100 is a hit, things get interesting.
Odds of renewal: 70%
The Carrie Diaries
Pro: The Josh Schwartz name.
Con: The ratings have been terrible on Fridays. That it was scheduled for Fridays in the first place.
Odds of renewal: 5%
This week’s other notable data points:
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. continued the rollercoaster by hitting a series low. I’m still not changing my prediction, as Paul Lee should survive through at least Summer and will have every reason to try and give this a reboot or three.
The CBS Thursday @9 comedy block continues to flounder, with The Crazy Ones tying its series low (except this time, it had a new The Big Bang Theory leading off the night) and Two and a Half Men doing no better… so I moved Mom to “On the Bubble”. Barring another midseason schedule announcement, we’ll get to CBS next week, but the short version is: I don’t see CBS cancelling two Chuck Lorre shows this season. One of them lives.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|Back In The Game||ABC||Canceled|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Final Season|
|We Are Men||CBS||Canceled|
|American Dad||Fox||Moving to TBS|
|Welcome To The Family||NBC||Canceled|
|The Goldbergs||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Neighbors||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Once Upon a Time in Wonderland||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Super Fun Night||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Trophy Wife||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Beauty & The Beast||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Carrie Diaries||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Tomorrow People||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Almost Human||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Michael J. Fox Show||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Sean Saves The World||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|The Crazy Ones||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Mom||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|The Middle||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Modern Family||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|The Millers||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|NCIS: LA||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Renewal Predicted|
|The Originals||CW||Renewal Predicted|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Renewal Predicted|
|Family Guy||Fox||Renewal Predicted|
|The New Girl||Fox||Renewal Predicted|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewal Predicted|