When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Several Adjustments this Week

Blame holiday slackerdom, but the Renew/Cancel Index got out in front of Bubble Watch in terms of being forward looking, and that’s saying something since generally the R/C Index is based only on what has happened so far. But on Tuesday Bill recalibrated focusing on the more recent ratings data. I didn’t think he’d get around to doing that until next month!  As a result of that calibration, among other changes Unforgettable slid from a toss-up to likely to be canceled and Person of Interest bumped up to likely renewal.

At this point the Bubble Watch and R/C are fairly synced up. There are several shows Bill has as likely renewals that I still have as on the bubble, but none of those are hige discrepancies. Particularly in the case of the CW the unwillingness I have to bump some shows up is that in the absolute, the ratings are horrible, and the question of with Dawn Ostroff gone, might 2012-13 be the year CW moves further away from its focus on women 18-34?

There is one vehement disagreement though:

Fringe Isn’t on the Bubble or a Toss Up, It’s Likely to be Canceled!

Bill wrote:

And those who enjoy chiding at me for my cowardice over keeping Fringe a “toss up” may continue to do so. It’s ratings are terrible, but so were they last season. Warner Brothers gave the show away for a fourth season, and there’s some chance they’ll do it again.

As a stand-alone sentiment, without looking at the designation (Bill has declared Fringe a tossup) I agree with what’s written above completely.  However… With last year’s renewal there was at least the incentive on Warner Bros’ part to discount to get to 88 episodes for stripped syndication purposes. With that accomplished with the fourth season renewal, what’s the incentive to give it away for a fifth season?  Because it’s Fringe, that’s why! But that “some chance” is worse than last year and the difference between certain cancellation and likely cancellation, not likely cancellation and a toss-up.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie’s Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Harry’s Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Body of Proof ABC Likely Cancellation
Fringe FOX Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Likely Cancellation
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Bones Fox On The Bubble
House Fox On The Bubble
Raising Hope Fox On The Bubble
Terra Nova Fox On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Ringer CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Whitney NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Likely Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Likely Renewal
90210′ CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
The Secret Circle CW Likely Renewal
Grimm NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Castle ABC Certain Renewal
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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