When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

I Hate My Teenage Daughter Likely To Be Canceled

I completely forgot to include the show in its debut week, but it worked out OK. Bill cautioned not to be quick to proclaim cancellation after only one week (and I wouldn’t have been). But now there’s two data points and it’s enough for me. The show dropped from an OK 2.8 adults 18-49 rating in its premiere to a not-so-ok 2.1 adults 18-49 rating. Not a good trajectory at all. I realize that surprised absolutely nobody.

Terra Nova Still On The Bubble

Several have written with some variant of “C’mon, you know Terra Nova is going to be canceled. Why won’t you list it as at least ‘likely to be canceled?’

No, I don’t know Terra Nova is going to be canceled. Its ratings clearly aren’t great or even good really, but nor are they bad enough to have a clear view. Cancellation won’t surprise me and neither will renewal. Some will protest “yes, but not only are its ratings not great, it’s very, very expensive!” While I’ve read of the shows production woes and comments on costs I don’t know how much things really cost. If the pilot really cost from $10 million to $20 million alone (a wide range) and each episode costs $4 million then I agree renewal looks bleak.

If the reports of costs are true and if it were my money, I wouldn’t renew it. But it’s not my money and I think it’s quite possible (perhaps even likely) that crazy discussions like “Well, we could cancel it and cut our losses, or we could amortize the expensive-as-hell-pilot over another season!” will be had.

Perhaps the next two weeks (the final two weeks of Terra Nova’s season) will tell the tale.

Hart of Dixie Still On The Bubble

Bill upgraded Hart of Dixie to likely renewal which is understandable since it broke away from the pack of middling shows. But to paraphrase Billy Preston, 90% of nothing is still nothing. Do I like Hart of Dixie’s renewal prospects better than Nikita’s and Gossip Girl’s? Absolutely. But just not enough more to bump it up to “likely” yet.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie’s Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Harry’s Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Body of Proof ABC Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Likely Cancellation
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
CSI CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
Person of Interest CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Unforgettable CBS On The Bubble
Bones Fox On The Bubble
House Fox On The Bubble
Raising Hope Fox On The Bubble
Terra Nova Fox On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Ringer CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Whitney NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
90210′ CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
The Secret Circle CW Likely Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Likely Renewal
Grimm NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Castle ABC Certain Renewal
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season

Click here for previous Bubble Watch posts.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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