Update:‘Terra Nova’ has been canceled

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn’t coming back next season.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Despite being an hour-long, if you count Glee as a comedy rather than a drama the state of things at Fox as far as dramas go looks pretty bleak.  Though Touch is on the bubble in the list below, that’s a mere formality since it has aired only one episode. I could change it to “certain to be renewed” at this point and still be right.  Touch has already proved me wrong once though: I was certain if it had  Kiefer Sutherland that it would be airing Mondays at 9pm in homage to the glory days of 24.  Fox thought that way too, before changing its mind.

It’s hard to blame Fox for moving Touch to Thursdays. “Let’s give our last best shot at drama for 2011-12 season its best shot” makes a lot of sense even if it dredged up the  crazy and pathetic Bones fans (of course not all Bones fans are crazy and pathetic, most of them are very cool I’m sure. But  the crazy and pathetic ones poked their heads out of their gopher holes when the schedule change was announced).

Sure, there’s not chance Bones ratings on Mondays at 8pm won’t be as good as they would’ve been following American Idol on Thursdays, but I’m not too worried about Bones even with  that. With The Finder and Alcatraz headed towards cancellation and House limping off into the sunset it’s hard (though not impossible) to imagine Bones not coming back next season.

Like Bill I was never convinced that Fox had to make its decision about Terra Nova as early as some TV media suggested, but I do think it needs longer lead-times than normal and no news isn’t necessarily good news. But the state of Fox’s dramas have me at least a little bit more optimistic about Terra Nova than I was when it finished its season in the fall.

That optimism doesn’t carry over to Fringe, though I am looking forward to comments complaining that Fox killed the show by giving it The Finder as a lead-in (those comments will be even more fun if The Finder actually rates better than Fringe on Fridays). Last year Fringe’s renewal was announced the evening of March 24. I’m thinking the date will be later (May, not March) and that the results will be different this year and I’m ignoring the e-mails warning me to “Beware the Ides of March!”  Either way props to Fox for giving us the alliterate-able Finder-Fringe-Friday!

Too soon to weigh-in on NBC’s Awake (maybe next week).  I upgraded Smash to likely renewal since it’s hard to imagine NBC not renewing it. Another steady-ish outing on Monday might get it upgraded to certain renewal.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.


Show Network Status
Charlie’s Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Harry’s Law NBC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Likely Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Supernatural CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Raising Hope Fox On The Bubble
Terra Nova Fox On The Bubble Canceled
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Awake NBC On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Smash NBC Likely Renewal
Up All Night NBC Likely Renewal
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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