When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn’t coming back next season.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Not to burst the bubble of any fans who in the wake of Terra Nova’s cancellation are hopeful that means it’s more likely that Alcatraz and The Finder will be renewed, but, it doesn’t mean it’s more likely those shows will be renewed. It’s no less likely either though! Though it’s likely The Finder will be canceled, depending on how it does on Fridays I wouldn’t be shocked if it was renewed. Barring a dramatic ratings uptick in its final three episodes I would be very surprised if Alcatraz survives so I’ve downgraded it to certain cancellation.

Breaking In debuts on the bubble but to me that’s a formality due to only having aired one episode and being slightly singed last season (I had it as likely to be cancelled, and it kinda was before being uncancelled). I don’t fault Fox for noting that this year’s season premiere was up versus last year’s finale since there was really no good apples-to-apples comparison to make since last season’s premiere was behind American Idol. But the comparison to last year’s finale isn’t apples-to-apples either since it ran behind Raising Hope while Tuesday’s season premiere had the higher-rated New Girl as its lead-in.

For those who’ve continually been asking when the likes of 30 Rock and Law & Order: SVU will be downgraded my reply is not yet, and perhaps never. But somewhat like the CW NBC has a lot of low-rated shows packed tightly together that could make things tricky to predict if there’s no clearer separation between shows in the next couple of months.

For now it’s still a bit too soon to demote Awake to likely cancellation. The trend is certainly not Awake’s  friend but it’s still not clear where (and when) it will stabilize.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.


Show Network Status
Charlie’s Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Certain Cancellation
Harry’s Law NBC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Likely Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Supernatural CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Breaking In Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Awake NBC On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Smash NBC Likely Renewal
Up All Night NBC Likely Renewal
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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