When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Terra Nova, House Downgraded – Now on the Bubble

Yes it was Halloween, and yes the baseball scheduling wreaked havoc on Fox shows, but I’ve still downgraded Terra Nova and House to the bubble anyway. Is that fair? Maybe not, but the goal of Bubble Watch isn’t to be fair, it’s to predict what happens by/in May and I think those decisions could go either way.

Even if Terra Nova bounces back a bit it’s reportedly a very expensive show. OK ratings + very expensive isn’t a great combo. House’s ratings are already OK and definitely more OK than Terra Nova’s, but it’s in its eighth season and expensive as a result. I can definitely see House being renewed for a ninth season, but with only average ratings renewal isn’t a slam dunk.

Once Upon a Time Upgraded, Grimm Still on the Bubble

While predicting anything after only two episodes is folly (which is why after only one episode, both shows were on the bubble last week), I’ve upgraded Once Upon a Time to likely renewal.  For now, Grimm is still on the bubble though.  Don’t take that to mean anything about Grimm’s premiere or it’s second episode, which particularly for NBC, were great.

The 14% drop in its adults 18-49 rating its second week was not a bad sign, and is pretty typical as far as drops from premieres go (and better than many).  But despite being on Fridays (and on NBC to boot), on an absolute ratings basis, Grimm has less wiggle room than Once Upon a Time, i.e.Once Upon a Time can fall a full ratings point (or more) and still be renewed and Grimm can’t.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.

Update: whoops, I forgot to add Fox’s Allen Gregory to the table below, it’ll be there next week, but I’ve got it as likely to be canceled.

Show Network Status
Charlie’s Angels ABC Canceled
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Harry’s Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Prime Suspect NBC Certain Cancellation
Body of Proof ABC Likely Cancellation
Pan Am ABC Likely Cancellation
Man Up ABC Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Person of Interest CBS On The Bubble
Unforgettable CBS On The Bubble
House Fox On The Bubble
Terra Nova Fox On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Grimm NBC On The Bubble
Once Upon a Time ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Rules of Engagement CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Lilely Renewal
90210′ CW Likely Renewal
Ringer CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
The Secret Circle CW Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Up All Night NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Castle ABC Certain Renewal
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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