It could be argued that The Following should’ve never been upgraded to likely renewal. It’s been downgraded back to ‘on the bubble.” If you Google the phrase “remain calm all is well” you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It’s from the classic National Lampoon’s Animal House (pictured above, video below).
One way or the other “remain calm, all is well” is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense –if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed — or in the Kevin Bacon-y ‘Animal House’ sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.
Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there’s more data, and it wasn’t “good”, Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the fan excuse bingo of “Valentine’s Day” and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.
I’ve started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine’s Day. But…
There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Canceled|
|Zero Hour||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|The New Normal||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?)|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Following, The||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Mentalist, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Middle, The||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries, The||CW||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final SeasonFinished|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final SeasonFinished|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|