The Following premiered well with a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating. Bill notes that it would have to fall a long way (currently to below around a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating) to be at risk for cancellation.

Solid premieres are definitely much better than lousy premieres, but they still aren’t very telling.  Remember, last January the two-hour premiere of Alcatraz averaged a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating. A little more than two months later its two-hour season finale averaged adults 18-49 ratings of 1.6 and 1.5 respectively and Alcatraz was canceled.

That does not mean that The Following will meet with the same fate as Alcatraz, it just means for now The Following is still on the bubble.

During the week Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt. 23 was effectively canceled (protest the semantics as much as you like, even James Van Der Beek tweeted “Translation: we’ve basically been cancelled.” Meanwhile Van Der Beek deserves some kind of TV by the Numbers award for being a realist and a class act with his tweets.

But network TV is a business dictated by Nielson ratings. And while that’s an antiquated business model, it’s the only one they’ve got.

— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013

And please, no bashing ABC. While I’m sure no one there would say they think they nailed it when it came to programming #Apt23 this year…

— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013

You’ve got to give ABC props for ever picking us up in the first place. They took a shot at something original & edgy. I respect them for it

— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013

Ok, like many, he spelled Nielsen incorrectly, but otherwise that was pretty classy.

Ben and Kate was also effectively canceled by being pulled from the schedule and then just canceled outright. That means unless something moves down the list,  all of this season’s “certain to be canceled” shows have now already been canceled.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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