It’s a New Year and although it has been a while since the last Bubble Watch, not much has changed because for most of the absence there were no original episodes of scripted shows.

There are a few minor changes though — the changes really are pretty minor, if you have a strong reaction to them consider yourself much more emotionally invested than I am!

Nashville was upgraded from on the bubble to likely renewal. I also upgraded Whitney from likely cancellation to on the bubble status. It could move right back down after its next episode. We’ll see.  Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain renewal. From a ratings perspective that’s been true all season, really. I held “Men” back a little bit because of the older show/expense issues. But it’s pretty clear that both sides (Warner Bros and CBS) will be motivated to bring it back so it’s hard to imagine any situation that doesn’t result in renewal.

1600 Penn and Deception are on the bubble only because I’m waiting for more data. Also, since the last Bubble Watch How I Met Your Mother and Bones have been renewed.

Through most of the fall, Revenge was “certain to be renewed” while Scandal was “likely to be renewed.” I’ve flipped that around to kick off the year. Which show is “better” in terms of quality is no concern of Bubble Watch (I personally haven’t watched either, and I don’t have anything against either show), the very recent ratings trend favors Scandal. But if Scandal vs. Revenge is some sort of sporting contest in your mind, that is for your own entertainment purposes only. There is no zero sum game between Revenge and Scandal. Both could be renewed and based on current ratings, both will be renewed. At least currently, which show you like more is as inconsequential as which show has the better ratings.

Edit: This post was drafted prior to the release of CBS’s summer schedule. I have to give props to Bill who upon perusing CBS’s midseason schedule a while back concluded CSI: NY was more likely to be canceled than renewed. I’d kept it on the bubble, but upon seeing the summer schedule have to conclude Bill had it right a couple of months ago.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made in Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben and Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys with Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
1600 Penn NBC On The Bubble
Deception NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Nashville ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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