Lucky Dice

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.


The writing was etched fairly deeply into the wall when CBS announced Vegas was moving to Fridays. But like gamblers hoping to get on a hot streak and win back what they’ve lost, many fans held out hope that Vegas would get hot enough on Fridays to keep itself in the renewal discussion.  In TV ratings, as in gambling ” ‘hope’ ain’t nothin’ but a four letter word.”

Vegas came in third with adults 18-49 in the preliminary ratings for Friday, trailing both Shark Tank and Grimm by wide margins. That it came in ahead of Touch and had the most total viewers in the hour are no consolation, at least not in terms of Vegas‘ renewal prospects.

Go On & The New Normal

I’d hoped that the return of The Voice might clear things up a little bit with regard to Go On. There’s a case to be made that it did, and that Go On should just be moved to “likely cancellation.” I may do that yet, but for now it’s still a bubble show. For a brief period it looked like a might have to instead upgrade The New Normal to the bubble since its preliminary ratings in the direct afterglow of The Voice were as good as Go On‘s. But The New Normal was adjusted down in the finals and it aired after a telecast of The Voice that performed four-tenths better with adults 18-49 than the one that led into Go On a week earlier.

How To Live with Your Parents & Hannibal

How to Live with Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) got off to a good start after Modern Family on Wednesday and Hannibal had a so-so debut on Thursday. For now, I have them both on the bubble pending at least another week of data. It’s not uncommon for shows to premiere well out of Modern Family only to quickly fade.

Someone asked me if I thought NBC would cut Hannibal some slack since NBC has had so many recent woes Thursdays at 10pm. Short answer: not if it falls to a 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. If it stabilizes at around a 1.2-1.3, I’ll probably cut it a little bit more slack than I did for Deception on Mondays and at least keep it on the bubble.

Body of Proof & Nashville

At least in theory those who said that I should have bumped Nashville down to the bubble and upgraded Body of Proof to the bubble last week shouldn’t have any problems that I still have Nashville as a renewal and Body of Proof as a likely cancellation this week.  Let’s see how it works out in practice!

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made in Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben and Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty and the Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cult CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys with Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
How to Live with Your Parents… ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon a Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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