2015 Happy New Year Strands Line Glow Dark Background
As we’re deep into the ratings dead zone of Holiday specials and repeats, I thought I’d take the opportunity to mention how I currently view the chances of every show on the network (and be amused at how much things have changed by May).

The ABC Fall Summary

Castle

Pro: Ratings are close to average.

Con: The show is getting old enough where costs begin to be the primary concern.

Odds of renewal: 80%

Selfie

Odds of renewal: Canceled.

Manhattan Love Story

Odds of renewal: Canceled.

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

Con: The show’s ratings are well below ABC’s hopes, did not improve after being moved away from The Voice and NCIS.

Pro: The ratings are still just slightly below average, which is usually good enough for renewal, possible movie marketing.

Odds of renewal: 75%

Forever

Con: Ratings are terrible.

Pro: Maybe all the veteran renewals go sideways?

Odds of renewal: 5%

The Middle

Pro: Ratings are above average.

Con: Unless all the comedy pilots are disasters, something needs to be moved off the night, and The Middle would be it. If ABC goes to dramas on Tuesdays and this show is now too expensive for Fridays… then what?

Odds of renewal: 80%

The Goldbergs

Pro: Ratings have notably improved after being moved into the Wednesday block.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Modern Family

Pro: Despite all the talk about Scandal and HTGAWM, Modern Family is still the highest rated show on the network.

Odds of renewal: 100%

black-ish

Pro: The number two comedy on the network.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Nashville

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Grey’s Anatomy

Pro: Defeated the ABC Death Slot(!), continues to swap in newer, cheaper cast members.

Con: Old and therefore more expensive than average.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Scandal

Pro: The number one drama on the network.

Odds of renewal: 100%

How to Get Away with Murder

Pro: The biggest hit of the Fall.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Last Man Standing

Pro: Good (for Friday) ratings.

Con: The renewal was contentious last time, and that was with the show hitting the far-preferred 88 episode count. (Turns out Tim Allen doesn’t work for cheap.)  Unless Allen is suddenly willing to take a pay cut, the much smaller bump the show gets for 100+ episodes in syndication isn’t going to make up the difference.

Odds of renewal: 20%

Cristela

Con: Ratings have already dropped to untenable levels.

Odds of renewal:  5%

Once Upon a Time

Pro: Used Frozen-mania to grow from last season, ABC has bigger fish to fry.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Revenge

Pro: A 13 episode syndication-padding, Spring schedule-filling final series order has become common.

Con: They are far less common when the show is this far below average.

Odds of renewal: 20%

Resurrection

Con: This is a dead show walking, no backorder.

Odds of renewal: 0%

Since scheduling is mostly projected ratings , I figured I’d include:

The ABC Spring Preview

Fresh off the Boat (Premieres (in the timeslot) on Tuesday February 10th@8:00)

Pro: ABC is trying to get sampling with two airings on in the Wednesday block on February 4th, premieres in February sweeps.

Con: That timeslot (opposite The Voice and NCIS) crushed a Marvel tie-in series to low 1s last season – and Selfie to even less this season.

Forecast: Somewhat Pessimistic

Agent Carter (Premieres on Tuesday January 6th@9:00)

Con: It’s a period spin-off of an already questionably rated movie spin-off.

Forecast: Somewhat Pessimistic

American Crime (Premieres on Thursday March 5th@10:00)

Pro: Given the best lead-in the network has available.

Con: Questionable if this sort of show plays on network TV anymore.

Forecast: Somewhat Pessimistic

Galavant (Premieres on Sunday January 4th@8:00)

Con: Running through two episodes a week (before February sweeps start) isn’t an event, it’s burnoff.

Forecast: Pessimistic

Secrets & Lies (Premieres on Sunday March 1st@9:00)

Con: ABC would rather have Resurrection’s ratings during February sweeps than this.

Forecast: Pessimistic

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Save yourself from hibernating bears! Direct your criticisms to @tvtomshaw instead!

Scheduling note: The Cancellation Bear will return with new Indexes and predictions on January 6, 2015 and will then only use the ratings since December 29, 2014 in his calculations for the remainder of the season. Expect some prediction changes in the first weeks of 2015.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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