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As we’re deep into the ratings dead zone of Holiday specials and repeats, I thought I’d take the opportunity to mention how I currently view the chances of every show on the network (and be amused at how much things have changed by May).
The CBS Fall Summary
2 Broke Girls
Pro: CBS has bigger fish to fry.
Odds of renewal: 95%
Mike & Molly
Pro: The Chuck Lorre name, CBS has comedy issues.
Con: Can even CBS afford spackle shows anymore? How long does Melissa McCarthy want to continue this for?
Odds of renewal: 75%
Scorpion
Pro: The closest thing to a success CBS has this season; CBS’ scheduling moves trying to protect it.
Odds of renewal: 98%
NCIS: LA
Pro: CBS has bigger 10pm issues to worry about.
Odds of renewal: 99%
NCIS
Pro: Unless costs suddenly explode, it isn’t going anywhere.
Odds of renewal: 99%
NCIS: NO
Pro: Ratings are unsurprisingly above average.
Odds of renewal: 99%
Person of Interest
Con: Ratings are no longer anything to write home about.
Pro: WB managed to make another season for The Mentalist make sense; I doubt they’ll have too hard a time getting at least one more season out of this show.
Odds of renewal: 95%
Criminal Minds
Pro: Unless costs suddenly explode, it isn’t going anywhere.
Odds of renewal: 98%
Stalker
Pro: CBS’ #1 rated 10pm drama!
Con: Partial backorder; pulled off schedule before all episodes air.
Odds of renewal: 15%
The Big Bang Theory
Odds of renewal: Renewed
Mom
Pro: The Chuck Lorre name, CBS actively making moves to support it.
Con: Ratings might collapse at 9:30.
Odds of renewal: 95%
Two and a Half Men
Odds of renewal: Final Season
The McCarthys
Con: Partial backorder; bad ratings.
Odds of renewal: 5%
Elementary
Con: Ratings have recently improved from abysmal to merely terrible.
Pro: Needs a fourth season for syndication.
Odds of renewal: 100%
Hawaii Five-0
Con: The worst rated drama that isn’t getting a fourth season for syndication reasons; CBS needs room in the retirement zone.
Pro: CBS might be able to create enough room via axing the likes of Madame Secretary and CSI instead.
Odds of renewal: 45%
Blue Bloods
Con: Ratings are nearly as bad as Hawaii Five-0’s.
Pro: CBS will kill CSI & Hawaii Five-0 before it gets to Blue Bloods.
Odds of renewal: 66%
Madame Secretary
Pro: The Good Wife keeps getting renewed with similar ratings.
Con: The Good Wife was firmly on the syndication track before it hit those Sunday ratings – the same cannot be said here. Ratings also likely to collapse now that NFL delays are ending.
Odds of renewal: 33%
The Good Wife
Con: I still don’t understand how it was renewed with its questionable ratings and failed Hallmark syndication run last time around.
Pro: I don’t need to understand: if it received a renewal last season and costs haven’t exploded or ad revenue hasn’t collapsed, it should be renewed again.
Odds of renewal: 66%
CSI
Con: Episode order was cut, old and expensive, ratings are now bad.
Odds of renewal: 10%
The Mentalist
Odds of renewal: Final Season
Since scheduling is mostly projected ratings , I figured I’d include:
The CBS Spring Preview
CSI: Cyber (Premieres on Wednesday March 4th@10:00)
Pro: With the mothership likely done, CBS may want to keep the producers happy; not starting off in the Sunday retirement zone.
Con: Entirely misses sweeps.
Forecast: Somewhat Optimistic
The Odd Couple (Premieres on Thursday February 19th@8:30)
Pro: CBS owned, given the best lead-in CBS has.
Con: CBS hasn’t had a lot of comedy luck lately.
Forecast: Somewhat Optimistic
Battle Creek (Premieres on Sunday March 1st@10:00)
Con: Entirely misses sweeps; too many older CBS dramas are nearing the retirement zone; CBS would rather have Elementary’s ratings on Thursday than this.
Forecast: Pessimistic
Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.
Save yourself from hibernating bears! Direct your criticisms to @tvtomshaw instead!
Scheduling note: The Cancellation Bear will return with new Indexes and predictions on January 6, 2015 and will then only use the ratings since December 29, 2014 in his calculations for the remainder of the season. Expect some prediction changes in the first weeks of 2015.
