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As we’re deep into the ratings dead zone of Holiday specials and repeats, I thought I’d take the opportunity to mention how I currently view the chances of every show on the network (and be amused at how much things have changed by May).
The CW Fall Summary
Pro: The CW likely wasn’t expecting ratings better than this opposite The Voice.
Odds of renewal: 95%
Jane The Virgin
Pro: The best performer from the CBS side of the fence – and opposite The Voice to boot!
Con: Further away from syndication than Reign if only one of the two can survive.
Odds of renewal: 80%
Pro: Ratings that would get it renewed on most “real” networks.
Odds of renewal: 100%
Pro: Has survived everywhere The CW has thrown it.
Con: Old and therefore likely more expensive than average, frankly hasn’t improved this year considering the massive upgrade at lead-in.
Odds of renewal: 85%
Pro: Ratings are above average, needs a fourth season for syndication.
Odds of renewal: 100%
Con: The worst rated show from the WB side of the fence, an eternity from syndication.
Odds of renewal: 30%
The Vampire Diaries
Pro: Ratings are still above average.
Con: Getting older and therefore likely more expensive than average.
Odds of renewal: 90%
Pro: CBS show on a network heavily skewed towards WB shows, a season closer to syndication than Jane the Virgin. Beauty & the Beast managed to get a renewal despite no room on the schedule for it.
Con: Currently the worst rated CW show, with no reason to expect a ratings turn-around. The Messengers could survive and leave this as the clear odd CBS show out.
Odds of renewal: 50%
Hart of Dixie (Returns (to its timeslot) on Friday January 9th@9:00)
Con: While the syndication gods demand a fourth season, they don’t necessarily demand 88 episodes anymore. So there’s little indication Hart of Dixie would get more episodes even if every renewal went sideways.
Odds of renewal: 10%
Note: Any CW Spring schedule changes had not published as of this writing (12/22).
Scheduling note: The Cancellation Bear will return with new Indexes and predictions on January 6, 2015 and will then only use the ratings since December 29, 2014 in his calculations for the remainder of the season. Expect some prediction changes in the first weeks of 2015.