Happy-New-Year-2015-Wallpapers-2
As we’re deep into the ratings dead zone of Holiday specials and repeats, I thought I’d take the opportunity to mention how I currently view the chances of every show on the network (and be amused at how much things have changed by May).

The NBC Fall Summary

The Blacklist (Returns (to its timeslot) on Thursday February 5th@9:00)

Pro: Ratings are still well above the NBC scripted average.

Con: Maybe it completely implodes on Thursday?

Odds of renewal: 98%

State of Affairs

Pro: Ratings above the NBC scripted average.

Con: NBC has a clear historical trend of expecting more from shows following The Voice.

Odds of renewal: 15%

Marry Me

Pro: Ratings slightly above the NBC scripted average.

Con: NBC has a clear historical trend of expecting more from shows following The Voice, partial backorder, no spot on Spring schedule.

Odds of renewal: 0%

About a Boy

Con: Ratings are below NBC average, no spot on Spring schedule.

Pro: The Spring comedies could also fail and NBC “has to” renew one comedy, is NBC produced and has the most episodes.

Odds of renewal: 20%

Chicago Fire

Pro: Ratings well above the NBC scripted average, needs a fourth season for syndication.

Odds of renewal: 100%

The Mysteries of Laura

Con: The show skews terribly old. NBC could have Spring successes.

Pro: Forget the skew, look at just the demo audience. The Mysteries of Laura is an almost-average performer, even before Sunday shows and months with no Voice drag the average down even more. Average rated shows (especially that aren’t expensive veterans) usually get renewed.

Odds of renewal: 75%

Law & Order: SVU

Pro: Ratings are still well above average.

Con: The show is extremely old, and more expensive than the average rated show. One of these years, the NBC / Dick Wolf game of chicken will end badly for SVU.

Odds of renewal: 75%

Chicago P.D.

Con: Not as successful as the mothership.

Pro: The ratings are still above the NBC average.

Odds of renewal: 98%

Bad Judge

Odds of renewal: Canceled

A to Z

Odds of renewal: Canceled

Parenthood

Odds of renewal: Final Season

Grimm

Pro: Ratings are okay by Friday standards, NBC has bigger fish to fry.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Constantine

Con: Terrible ratings, no backorder. You want to hope/dream someone else picks it up, go ahead, but it’s not happening at NBC.

Odds of renewal: 0%

Since scheduling is mostly projected ratings , I figured I’d include:

The NBC Spring Preview

The Night Shift (Returns on Monday February 22nd@10:00)

Pro: Survived last Summer, should get greater visibility after The Voice.

Con: NBC demands greater than average ratings after The Voice, and The Night Shift may not grow enough for NBC’s liking.

Forecast: Neutral

Parks and Recreation (Returns on Tuesday January 13th@8:00)

Forecast: Final Season

Undateable (Returns on Tuesday March 17th@9:00)

Pro: Survived last Summer, should get greater visibility after The Voice, is now in pole position for first comedy renewal.

Con: NBC demands greater than average ratings after The Voice, and Undateable may not grow enough for NBC’s liking.

Forecast: Somewhat Optimistic

One Big Happy (Premieres on Tuesday March 17th@9:30)

Pro: It shouldn’t take much for an NBC comedy to survive.

Con: Fun fact – No post-Voice Tuesday@9:30 comedy has survived. This may simply be a sour spot where it’s too far away from any real Voice-halo yet NBC demands higher than average ratings.

Forecast: Somewhat Pessimistic

Allegiance (Premieres on Thursday February 5th@10:00)

Pro: Gets The Blacklist for the lead-in, Elementary’s ratings are weak, American Crime doesn’t look strong.

Con: How to Get Away with Murder for the first month will not help, and we have no idea how The Blacklist itself will hold up on Thursdays. (The Americans’ ratings don’t set the world on fire either.)

Forecast: Neutral

Odyssey (Premieres on Sunday April 5th@10:00)

Pro: Uhh, maybe the Homeland audience is dying for a replacement?

Con: Extremely late start date, extremely incompatible lead-in.

Forecast: Pessimistic

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Save yourself from hibernating bears! Direct your criticisms to @tvtomshaw instead!

Scheduling note: The Cancellation Bear will return with new Indexes and predictions on January 6, 2015 and will then only use the ratings since December 29, 2014 in his calculations for the remainder of the season. Expect some prediction changes in the first weeks of 2015.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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