Happy New Year 2015 Hot Colors On Black Backgrounds
As we’re deep into the ratings dead zone of Holiday specials and repeats, I thought I’d take the opportunity to mention how I currently view the chances of every show on the network (and be amused at how much things have changed by May).

The Fox Fall Summary


Pro: One of the biggest hits of the Fall.

Odds of renewal: 100%

 Sleepy Hollow

Con: No longer the freshman hit it was.

Pro: Fox has bigger fish to fry, Fox produced.

Odds of renewal: 95%

New Girl

Pro: Fox has bigger fish to fry, Fox produced. Still gets an ad bump from high W18-34 ratings.

Odds of renewal: 99%

The Mindy Project

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Red Band Society

Con: Terrible ratings, no backorder, episodes left on the shelf, not Fox produced.

Odds of renewal: 0%


Pro: Fox produced, has survived everywhere it has been placed on the schedule, no signs Fox has developed a new reality show that could take up multiple hours next Fall.

Con: Old and therefore more expensive than average. Currently the lowest rated non-canceled Fox drama.

Odds of renewal: 70%


Odds of renewal: Canceled.

Bob’s Burgers

Pro: Episodes exist for next season.

Odds of renewal: Effectively renewed.

The Simpsons

Odds of renewal: Renewed.

Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Con: You could quibble the show hasn’t improved much this season considering the shows it is sandwiched between.

Pro: Ratings well above the Fox average, Fox doesn’t have enough animation in the development pipeline to revert Sundays back to all animated next season even if they wanted to, NBCUniversal managed to drag The Mindy Project to four seasons – they should have no problem doing so with Brooklyn Nine-Nine.

Odds of renewal: 99%

Family Guy

Pro: Episodes exist for next season.

Odds of renewal: Effectively renewed.


Con: Terrible ratings, even the star admits it is done.

Odds of renewal: 0%

Since scheduling is mostly projected ratings , I figured I’d include:

The Fox Spring Preview

The Following (Returns on Monday March 2nd@9:00)

Pro: Fox has a lot of holes on their schedule, ratings weren’t terrible last season.

Con: Not Fox produced, doesn’t look cheap, opinion has soured sharply, scheduled outside of February sweeps.

Forecast: Somewhat Pessimistic

Weird Loners (Premieres on Tuesday March 31st@9:30)

Pro: Fox has a lot of holes on their schedule. New Girl is the best “female” comedy lead-in the network has.

Con: Fox would rather have The Mindy Project on during February sweeps than this.

Forecast: Pessimistic

Empire (Premieres on Wednesday January 7th@9:00)

Pro: Given the best timeslot Fox has (away from The Voice and the TGIT block), American Idol lead-in, heavy promotion.

Forecast: Somewhat Optimistic

Backstrom (Premieres on Thursday January 22nd@9:00)

Pro: Fox has a lot of holes on their schedule, Hart Hanson-produced procedurals have survived on Fox Thursdays before.

Con:  Thursdays are more competitive now – and this is airing directly against The Blacklist.

Forecast: Somewhat Pessimistic

Glee (Returns on Friday January 9th@9:00)

Forecast: Final Season

Last Man on Earth (Premieres on Sunday March 1st@9:30)

Pro: Male-leaning show should slot in well with male-leaning Sunday block.

Con:  You could have said the same about Mulaney – and that show had a much more traditional concept, misses February sweeps.

Forecast: Pessimistic

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Save yourself from hibernating bears! Direct your criticisms to @tvtomshaw instead!

Scheduling note: The Cancellation Bear will return with new Indexes and predictions on January 6, 2015 and will then only use the ratings since December 29, 2014 in his calculations for the remainder of the season. Expect some prediction changes in the first weeks of 2015.


Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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