Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2014.

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast* renewed 0.47
The Carrie Diaries* (F) canceled 0.50
Star-Crossed canceled 0.54
Hart Of Dixie (some F) renewed 0.54
The Tomorrow People canceled 0.74
Reign renewed 0.90
The 100 renewed 1.03
The Originals renewed 1.34
Arrow renewed 1.40
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.50
Supernatural renewed 1.58

The cancellation bear went 10-1 on his CW predictions over the course of the 2013-14 season. (vs. 9-1 in 2012-13 and 7-3 in 2011-12) missing only his prediction for Beauty And The Beast cancellation.

That Beauty And The Beast renewal was among the most mind boggling of all the cancellation bear’s misses ever (the bear still favors ‘Til Death though). It was the CW’s lowest rated show in 2014, and its relative ratings were lower than any show on any network since the bear began his current method of relative ratings calculation four seasons ago. We may never know why, but the theory that it’s some sort of CBS/WB production equilibrium situation among CW shows does make some logical sense.

Or has the CW become such a syndication focused machine that the bear has to supplement his “three full seasons gets a fourth season renewal no matter the ratings” rule specifically for the CW to “two full seasons gets a third season renewal no matter the ratings”? We won’t know the answer to that until (at least) next year with Reign.

The “it sells well internationally” nonsense should be laid to rest in the future. If that was the reason, it should get several more 22 episode seasons because of those great international sales. If it was a temporary imbalance in the CBS/WB productions, then that can be taken care more quickly without burdening the CW with terrible BATB ratings indefinitely.

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2013-14 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical).  24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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