The most talked about change to Thursday night’s this season has been the move of CBS ratings heavyweight The Big Bang Theory to 8pm. But that’s not the only change. There are 3 series premieres (My Generation, $#*! My Dad Says, Outsourced), and ten season premieres (Grey’s Anatomy, Private Practice, Big Bang Theory, CSI, The Mentalist, Community, 30 Rock, The Office, Bones, Fringe).

How will they do in the ratings?

The general trend so far for returning shows has been to debut up a bit from their May, 2010 ratings level, but not  close to their Fall, 2009 premiere ratings. I expect that ratings pattern will hold for Fox although everything at 8pm could be in danger because of the unpredictability of the CBS audience. I’d expect a weak My Generation to hurt Grey’s Anatomy all season, as did the weakened FlashForward last year. I’ll guess Big Bang Theory gets the same audience that Two And A Half Men did on Monday, but that may be a stretch. Even the low ratings I expect for NBC in the 8pm hour may turn out to be optimistic.

My guesses (adults 18-49 ratings):

  • Bones: 2.8
  • My Generation: 2.3
  • Big Bang Theory: 4.8
  • Community: 2.2
  • S#*! My Dad Says: 3.9
  • 30 Rock: 2.3
  • Grey’s Anatomy: 4.2
  • CSI: 3.4
  • The Office 3.8
  • Fringe: 2.3
  • Outsourced: 2.9
  • The Mentalist: 3.6
  • Private Practice: 3.1

You can check out other premiere dates here.

Premiere Thursday 2009 (September 24, 2009) (note not all shows were premires)

Ah, FlashForward, by December it had fallen to a 2.1 and its fate was sealed.

Time Net Show 18-49 Rating/Share Viewers (Millons)
8:00 ABC FlashForward (series premiere) 4.1/12 12.41
CBS Survivor: Samoa 3.7/11 11.87
FOX Bones 2..7/8 8.80
NBC SNL Weekend Update Thursday 1.8/5 4.66
CW The Vampire Diaries 1.7/5 3.81
8:30 NBC Parks & Recreation 1.8/5 4.22
9:00 FOX Fringe 2.3/6 5.85
ABC Grey’s Anatomy (season premiere) 6.6/17 17.06
CBS CSI (season premiere) 4.1/10 15.72
NBC The Office 3.8/10 7.33
CW Supernatural 1.2/3 2.62
9:30 NBC Community 2.8/7 5.36
10:00 ABC Grey’s Anatomy (season premiere) 6.7/18 16.52
CBS The Mentalist (season premiere) 3.4/9 14.33
NBC The Jay Leno Show 1.7/5 4.99

Premiere Thursday 2010 schedule:

Time Net Show 18-49 Rating/Sh Viewers (Millions)
8:00 FOX Bones (Season Premiere)
ABC My Generation (Series Premiere)
CBS The Big Bang Theory (Season Premiere)
NBC Community (Season Premiere)
CW The Vampire Diaries
8:30 CBS S#*! My Dad Says (Series Premiere)
NBC 30 Rock (Season Premiere)
9:00 NBC The Office (Season Premiere)
ABC Grey’s Anatomy (Season Premiere)
CBS CSI (Season Premiere)
FOX Fringe (Season Premiere)
CW Nikita
9:30 NBC Outsourced   (Series Premiere)
10:00 CBS The Mentalist (Season Premiere)
NBC The Apprentice
ABC Private Practice  (Season Premiere)

What are your guesses?

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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