Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through September 19, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outlaw (F, coming up)||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
|Parenthood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.08|
Outlaw’s series premiere 2.3 adults 18-49 rating was hardly confidence inspiring, but don’t count Outlaw out until you see its Friday 10pm ratings results.
While I’d expect its ratings on Friday to fall further when it begins this week, the ratings threshold for Friday show renewals is far lower than for the rest of the week. (Medium was renewed with an R/ C Index of just 0.59 last season).
How low might Outlaw be able to fall and still survive? If the rest of NBC’s scripted primetime shows average a 2.3 rating for new episodes, conceivably Outlaw could get renewed with a 1.4 rating average on Fridays (if the Medium experience is any guide).
Parenthood’s 2.7 adults 18-49 rating will likely compare very well with NBC’s scripted show premieres this week.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
Note: Just two Renew / Cancel Index posts this week, because only the CW and NBC had premiered new scripted shows by last week. Next week I’ll have the full slate of five posts.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- likely to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – likely to be renewed by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.