Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 4, 2009):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Numb3rs (F) 0.57
Three Rivers 0.63
Medium (F) 0.67
Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) 0.67
New Adventures of Old Christine (S) 0.68
Cold Case 0.72
Gary Unmarried 0.75
The Good Wife 1.05
Accidentally On Purpose (p) 1.07
How I Met Your Mother (S) 1.20
CSI:NY 1.22
The Mentalist 1.23
CSI 1.37
Criminal Minds 1.37
CSI: Miami 1.40
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.42
Two And A Half Men 1.55
NCIS 1.60
Big Bang Theory 1.67

The premiere ratings for Three Rivers registered a flatline with viewers, and it’s now the most likely CBS show to be canceled prior to the end of the season. Based on recent CBS history with underperforming dramas, cancellation prior to November seems quite possible.

Cold Case improved a bit from last week, but is still in significant danger of being canceled before the end of the season. New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are low once again, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for another renewal.

In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?

This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:


The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.

Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:

  • (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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