In May, when the move of “Supergirl” to The CW became official, network head Mark Pedowitz laid out some ratings expectations for the show.
“We believe it will be a strong performer. We believe it may be one of our Top 3 performers in terms of ratings for next year,” Pedowitz said at the time, in what seemed like a perfectly reasonable statement.
“Supergirl’s” first season, on CBS, averaged a 1.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49. That number is somewhat inflated by a big series premiere (3.1 in the demo), but even its lowest-performing episode (1.3) would have been No. 1 or No. 2 on The CW in any given week.
The move to The CW will almost certainly result in lower numbers for “Supergirl,” just by virtue of the fact that the network doesn’t reach as many homes as CBS does (The CW reaches about 2 million fewer homes than any of the Big 4 networks). The network’s top show, ‘The Flash,” had ratings that were about average for a Big 4 show last season.
So ratings will be down from Season 1, but the bar for “Supergirl” to be a Top 3 show on The CW is also not terribly high. “The Flash” and “Arrow” premiered last week to 18-49 ratings of 1.3 and 0.7 — each down two tenths of a point from their 2015-16 averages. They were the network’s No. 1 and 2 shows last year.
A premiere of 0.8-1.0 in adults 18-49 seems pretty reachable for “Supergirl,” particularly with the added promotional interest of introducing Kara’s (Melissa Benoist) cousin, Clark Kent/Superman (Tyler Hoechlin), in Season 2. It should be noted that ratings in that range would be more than double the average for its timeslot last season, when “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” and “Reign” managed only a 0.3 in adults 18-49.
Vote below on how you think the “Supergirl” premiere will perform on The CW, and check Tuesday morning to see if the ratings match your prediction.