It’s not a bad bet to say “The Resident” will get the biggest series premiere ratings of the season Sunday night.
(Update: Turns out it was kind of a bad bet.)
The drama will debut following the NFC Championship and postgame show on FOX (more on how that came to be here). Outside the Super Bowl, a series can’t ask for a larger lead-in than the primetime conference title game, which alternates between FOX and CBS each year.
What the show does after that, however, is an open question. Recent history suggests “The Resident” will fall considerably in its second episode (scheduled for Monday).
Here’s how each post-championship show has performed among adults 18-49 in this decade:
|Year||Post-championship show||Start time (ET)||18-49 rating||
Champ. game 18-49 rating
|2011||Hawaii Five-0||10:13 p.m.||5.6||18.1|
|2012||American Idol||10:57 p.m.||7.9||20.5|
|2013||Hawaii Five-0||10:16 p.m.||3.5||16.8|
|2014||The Following*||10:19 p.m.||4.4||19.0|
|2016||The X-Files*||10:24 p.m.||6.1||15.7|
*Indicates a season or series premiere.
The shows following the conference championship games have averaged a 5.0 rating among adults 18-49 since 2011. Given the decline in both overall primetime and NFL ratings this season, “The Resident” may not clear that bar Sunday night. It’s not unreasonable, however, to expect it can top “Young Sheldon’s” 3.8 as the top series debut of 2017-18.
Wherever “The Resident” starts, its ratings will undoubtedly take a hit with Monday’s second episode. Since 2012, the next new episode after a show’s post-title game showcase dropped by an average of 42 percent. (CBS aired reruns of “Hawaii Five-0” in the two weeks after the 2011 AFC Championship.)
The real test of the show will come with episode 3 and beyond, of course. The fact that it’s getting the showcase spot on Sunday at least indicates that FOX has high hopes for it being able to succeed.