It’s a reasonably safe bet that “Good Girls” will have the highest adults 18-49 rating of the three shows making their series or season premieres Monday night.
The NBC show will have the benefit of “The Voice” premiere as its lead-in, and it’s been promoted heavily the past couple of weeks during the Winter Olympics, which may bring in a few curious viewers.
It’s also a good bet that CBS’ new comedy “Living Biblically” will draw a bigger audience than the Season 4 debut of “iZombie” in the ratings, because a CW show pretty much never beats an original CBS show.
How will each show do against some other benchmarks, though? Below you’ll find three over/under polls for each show, with the rationale for each line laid out before you vote. Read on, vote and offer up your specific thoughts on how each show will do in the comments.
In the fall, “The Brave” premiered to a 1.3 in adults 18-49 behind “The Voice.” It managed to keep just above a 1.0 same-day average while “The Voice” was airing, then fell off in January. It finished its 13-episode season with a 0.9 average.
“The Brave” also didn’t get much advance buzz, generally being pegged as the second-best of the three military dramas that debuted in the fall. “Good Girls” reviews have been mixed so far but generally more positive than those for “The Brave,” and NBC has given it a pretty big push in the past month.
So we’re setting the bar slightly higher than “The Brave,” with an over/under of 1.45 for Monday.
CBS’ new comedy is taking over the 9:30 p.m. timeslot occupied by “9JKL” in the first half of the season. It has the misfortune to premiere right after the Olympics — which for CBS meant mostly reruns and “Big Brother: Celebrity Edition,” which meant generally lower ratings and thus fewer people seeing network promos for the new show.
Lead-in “Superior Donuts” has only been above 1.0 once this season; “9JKL” averaged 0.8 for its last 12 episodes after losing “The Big Bang Theory” as a lead-in.
A 0.8 seems about right for “Living Biblically’s” long-term prospects, but premieres tend to be higher-rated, so we’ll set the over/under at 0.95.
“iZombie” is the only returning scripted show making its premiere on Monday. It plugs into the 9 p.m. spot previously occupied by “Valor” and will have “Legends of Tomorrow” as a lead-in for the next month and change until “Supergirl” returns.
In 2016-17 “iZombie” premiered with a 0.4 in adults 18-49 and averaged 0.3 for the season. That seems about right for the current season too: The show has its audience at this point and isn’t likely to go up or down too much, so our premiere over/under is 0.35.